195
FXAK67 PAJK 180039
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKST TUE FEB 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / COLD DRY OUTFLOW
CONTINUES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BIGGEST THING IS THAT
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WEAKENING OVERNIGHT NIGHT SO THE WINDS IN
THE LYNN CANAL REGIONS LOWERING FROM 30 MPH TO 15 MPH. THE RESULTING
WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING AS WELL. THE LATER HALF OF WEDNESDAY WILL
HAVE COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE, WHICH
WILL HELP SET UP THE AREA FOR A SOME LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL START TO
MOVE TO THE NE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN COASTAL AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AXIS OF A RIDGE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TRANSITING EAST INTO B.C, WITH THE STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR STRONG OUTFLOW WEAKENING,
LEAVING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. WESTERLY FLOW
UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY, HELPING DRIVE SOME SNOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE BEST SNOW
POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST AND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH A RANGE OF 3 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE; 2 INCHES OR
LESS FOR JUNEAU NORTH. FRIDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTH, FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITS SOUTH, A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS AGAIN BETWEEN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CANADA AND
THE RELATIVE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE
THAT STRONG GALE FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS RETURN FOR MANY INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND PERFECT VIS. WINDS HAVE DECREASED
FOR HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, WHILE SOME SITES ARE STILL ATTEMPTING
TO HOLD ON TO 20 TO 30 KT GUSTS. HAINES AND GUSTAVUS ARE STILL
EXPERIENCING ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS, THOUGH THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. SKAGWAY, JUNEAU, AND
WRANGELL ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ONTO THEIR GUSTS FOR LONGER, WITH
JUNEAU DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT, WRANGELL STAYING AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND SKAGWAY STAYING AROUND 30 KTS AND STARTING
TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD, SUSTAINED WINDS IN HAINES MAY INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE
INCREASE OF GUSTS IN SKAGWAY. LLWS, MAINLY SPEED SHEAR, AT AROUND
1000 FT IS STILL HANGING AROUND NEAR TYPICAL OUTFLOW EXITS, SUCH
AS TAKU INLET OR THE MOUTH OF THE STIKINE. AS SUCH, LLWS IN JUNEAU
IS MAINLY IMPACTING GASTINEAU CHANNEL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS WINDS CALM DOWN, SO LLWS MAY PERSIST LONGER FOR
WRANGELL.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE CHANNELS DIMINISHES THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN, WITH RESIDUAL
NW SEAS, MASKING SW SWELL GENERATED FROM A SYSTEM A FEW DAYS AGO
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS LESS THAN 12FT BY
TUESDAY EVENING, AND BETWEEN 5-9 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE OPEN GULF. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW OUT OF MAJOR INLETS/BAYS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST, REACHING GALE TO STRONG GALE FORCE, GENERATING MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
INSIDE: TUESDAY DAWNS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE HOWLING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS, ALONG WITH USUAL OUTFLOW
AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS SUSTAINED WINDS OF STRONG
GALE FORCE IN LYNN CANAL, WITH WIDESPREAD GALES ALONG AND NORTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE
FREEZING SPRAY, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PRIME
AREAS LIKE NORTHERN LYNN AND TAKU INLET. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, FRIDAY EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP TO GALE
FORCE FOR MOST CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHANNELS WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ319-323-
325-331.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ325.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ326.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ327-332.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ328.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ329.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ330.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013-053.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-032-034-641-643-644-
651-661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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