481
FXAK67 PAJK 180602
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
902 PM AKST TUE FEB 17 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATE FOLLOWING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / COLD DRY OUTFLOW
CONTINUES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BIGGEST THING IS THAT
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY SO THE
WINDS IN THE LYNN CANAL REGION IS LOWERING FROM 30 MPH TONIGHT TO 15
MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING AS
WELL. THE LATER HALF OF WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THIS WILL HELP SET UP THE AREA FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA. THE SNOW WILL START TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN COASTAL AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AXIS OF A RIDGE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TRANSITING EAST INTO B.C, WITH THE STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR STRONG OUTFLOW WEAKENING,
LEAVING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. WESTERLY FLOW
UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY, HELPING DRIVE SOME SNOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE BEST SNOW
POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST AND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH A RANGE OF 3 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE; 2 INCHES OR
LESS FOR JUNEAU NORTH. FRIDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTH, FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITS SOUTH, A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS AGAIN BETWEEN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CANADA AND
THE RELATIVE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE
THAT STRONG GALE FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS RETURN FOR MANY INNER CHANNELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLDER WEATHER AND FREEZING
SPRAY.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AGAIN AS THE YUKON HIGH
WEAKENS AND A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE W. THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY WITH
MOST OF THE AREAS LIKELY STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE MOSTLY SNOW.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS WEAKENING
OUTFLOW CONTINUES. THE TREND OF DECREASING WINDS CONTINUES INTO
TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME AREAS WILL HOLD ONTO THE ELEVATED WINDS AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LONGER INTO THE MORNING. SKAGWAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 20Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR IT TO HOLD ONTO THESE STRONGER WINDS FOR LONGER INTO THE DAY,
BUT WILL REGARDLESS DECREASE INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR
JUNEAU, THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST GUSTS ALONGSIDE THE MOST LLWS
CONCERN BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. STRONGER CROSS
BARRIER FLOW EXISTS ACROSS GASTINEAU CHANNEL FROM THE ELEVATED NE
TO N WINDS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST APPEAR TO BE ABOVE 3000 FT WITH
45 TO 60 KT OBSERVED AT SHEEP MTN. OVERALL BOTH THE SURFACE AND
HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
JUNEAU AREA.
WRANGELL AND KLAWOCK WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO THE WIND FOR LONGER,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING, DROPPING OFF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW
NIGHT. SURFACE WIND FOR OTHER LOCATIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR HAINES, GUSTAVUS,
AND SITKA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. LLWS, MAINLY SPEED
SHEAR, AT AROUND 1000 FT IS STILL HANGING AROUND NEAR TYPICAL
OUTFLOW EXITS, SUCH AS TAKU INLET OR THE MOUTH OF THE STIKINE
RIVER, THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE CHANNELS DIMINISHES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN, WITH RESIDUAL NW SEAS, MASKING SW
SWELL GENERATED FROM A SYSTEM A FEW DAYS AGO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS LESS THAN 12FT BY TUESDAY EVENING, AND BETWEEN 5-
9 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE OPEN GULF.
INSIDE: TUESDAY DAWNS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS HOWLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS, ALONG WITH USUAL OUTFLOW AREAS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS SUSTAINED WINDS OF STRONG GALE FORCE
IN LYNN CANAL, WITH WIDESPREAD GALES ALONG AND NORTH OF SUMNER
STRAIT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE FREEZING
SPRAY, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PRIME AREAS LIKE
NORTHERN LYNN AND TAKU INLET. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISHING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, FRIDAY
EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP TO GALE FORCE FOR MOST
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHANNELS WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318-319-
323-325-327-331-332.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ326.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ328.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ329.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ330.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-031.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013-053.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-643-644-
661>663.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP/EAL
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...BEZENEK
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