847
FXAK67 PAJK 181846
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 AM AKST WED FEB 18 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION SECTION. IN ADDITION, KEPT THE
STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS FOR APPROXIMATELY 3 HOURS LONGER DUE TO A
PARTICULARLY DEEP COLD POOL IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND YUKON. STILL
EXPECTING THE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST GULF, WHICH WILL MITIGATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT TIME OF WRITING, PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RELAX.
AVIATION
ONCE AGAIN, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD VIS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND, WITH HAINES, SKAGWAY, JUNEAU, AND WRANGELL
DIMINISHING AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING. LLWS CONCERNS FOR
JUNEAU DO LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
RIDGETOP WINDS, BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND.
MAIN CONCERNS GOING FORWARD IS LATE IN THE PERIOD SOME SNOW
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NE GULF COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ALONG THE COAST, BRINGING IFR VIS AND CIGS TO
YAKUTAT, WITH AREAS ALONG SITKA AND PRINCE OF WALES LOOKING TO BE
THE SAME JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY FOR
LOWER CIGS IS FURTHER INLAND, AS UNCERTAINTY IN DRYING ALOFT MAY
NOT SEE THE CLOUD DECK FULLY MOVE IN IN PLACES LIKE GUSTAVUS,
JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, AND WRANGELL.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES, COLD TEMPERATURES, AND WEAKENING
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE STORY FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS SE AK. ALOFT, A
500 MB RIDGE BUILT BY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING EAST OVER
THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY, SENDING
WIND SPEEDS ON A SHARP DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
AND FOR NORMAL OUTFLOW AREAS. ALREADY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY IS STEADILY DROPPING, A TREND THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WINDS WILL FINALLY FINISH DIMINISHING DOWN TO MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZE.
THE RIDGE WILL NOT REMAIN OVER SE AK INDEFINITELY HOWEVER, AND BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE, A LOW FORMING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF, BRINGING WITH IT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AXIS OF A RIDGE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TRANSITING EAST INTO B.C, WITH THE STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR STRONG OUTFLOW WEAKENING,
LEAVING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. WESTERLY FLOW
UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY, HELPING DRIVE SOME SNOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE BEST SNOW
POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST AND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH A RANGE OF 3 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE; 2 INCHES OR
LESS FOR JUNEAU NORTH. FRIDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTH, FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITS SOUTH, A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS AGAIN BETWEEN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CANADA AND
THE RELATIVE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE
THAT STRONG GALE FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS RETURN FOR MANY INNER CHANNELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLDER WEATHER AND FREEZING
SPRAY.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AGAIN AS THE YUKON HIGH
WEAKENS AND A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE W. THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY WITH
MOST OF THE AREAS LIKELY STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE MOSTLY SNOW.
AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS FOR THE OUTER COAST AND
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF YAKUTAT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL BE WEAKENING
DURING THE DAY TODAY. WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS AND TURBULENCE AROUND RIDGE TOP LEVEL SHOULD DIMINISH AS
WELL. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY START DETERIORATING
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP. CIGS COULD DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FOR PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
LOCATIONS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE CHANNELS DIMINISHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND SEAS ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN, WITH
RESIDUAL NW SEAS, MASKING SW SWELL GENERATED FROM A SYSTEM A FEW
DAYS AGO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS LESS THAN
12FT BY TUESDAY EVENING, AND BETWEEN 5-9 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE OPEN GULF. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF
LINGERING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW OUT OF MAJOR INLETS/BAYS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST, REACHING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
INSIDE: WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LYNN CANAL MAY
HOLD ONTO WINDS CLOSER TO 15-20 KT FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER, BUT THEY
SHOULD LIKEWISE FOLLOW SUIT BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EVENING.
HOWEVER, FRIDAY EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP TO GALE
FORCE FOR MOST CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHANNELS WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-034-661.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...GFS
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