120
FXAK67 PAJK 190100
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SPREADING OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
OUTER COAST
-NORTHERLY OUTFLOW INTENSIFIES AS SNOW EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY,
WITH STRONG GALES DEVELOPING FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
A COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
PANHANDLE LASTING INTO FRIDAY.
WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ONSHORE FLOW, OUTER COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH YAKUTAT BEING THE FIRST
IN LINE. OVERALL TOTALS FROM SITKA NORTHWARD TO YAKUTAT ALONG THE
OUTER COAST RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN YAKUTAT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND THEN A
SECONDARY SURGE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE A RESULT OF A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND SLIDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF THURSDAY.
THIS TRANSITION FROM JUST A FRONTAL WAVE TO AN ESTABLISHED LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A SECONDARY SURGE FOR MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE IMPACTS FOR THE INNER CHANNEL
COMMUNITIES IS LESS CLEAR. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES
SOUTHWARD, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY OF A
POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM, WITH EASTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY SCOURING OUT
PRECIPITATION CLOSEST TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND AREAS IMPACTED BY
DEVELOPING GAP WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION, WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE PANHANDLE WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING UPON THE SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION
AND EXTENT OF ANY DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH,
FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITS SOUTH, A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS AGAIN BETWEEN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CANADA AND
THE RELATIVE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE
THAT STRONG GALE FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS RETURN FOR MANY INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLDER WEATHER
AND FREEZING SPRAY. FOR JUNEAU, A TAKU WIND EVENT IS BECOMING
LIKELY SATURDAY, DRIVING GUSTS HIGHER THAN 60 MPH, WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY, OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AGAIN AS THE YUKON HIGH WEAKENS AND A
NEW WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE W. THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE
AREAS LIKELY STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE MOSTLY SNOW.
AVIATION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER AK PANHANDLE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND APPROACHES THEN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE
AK. WHILE THE REGION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARDS
YAKUATAT AND THEN CONTINUING EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SNOW WILL BRING VISIBILITY DOWN TO LESS THAN 3SM. AFTER
APPROXIMATELY 10AM TOMORROW PRECIPTIATION TYPE FOR THE YAKUTAT
AREA WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE RAIN SNOW MIX AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH TOWARD DIXON
ENTRANCE. FRESH SEAS ARE BEING GENERATED FROM THESE WINDS, WITH
BUOY 46206 REPORTING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS NEAR 8 FT AT 7 SECONDS.
THE REST OF THE COAST IS SEEING SW SWELL NEAR 3 FT AT 12 SECONDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE GULF, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES BEING FELT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WNW GALE FORCE IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GULF,
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FT TO OUR COAST, NEAR 20
FT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF, BY FRIDAY. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACT OUR REGION; MARINERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE STRONG
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG MAJOR BAYS/INLETS ALONG THE
COAST, WITH STORM FORCE NE WINDS LIKELY NEAR DANGEROUS RIVER,
BRINGING FREEZING SPRAY AND NE FRESH SEAS.
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES, A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE INTENSE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. ANTICIPATE
WINDS LARGELY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A LOW
TRANSITS SOUTH, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS BUILDING FRIDAY. MARINERS IN
YAKUTAT BAY WILL SEE GALE FORCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH STORM
FORCE IN UPPER BAY.
EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND TAKU INLET, SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. GALE
TO STRONG GALE FORCE WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT, WITH MAJOR INLETS LIKE THE STIKINE AND UNUK SEEING
HIGHER WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
SUNDAY IN LYNN CANAL. THESE WINDS, ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES,
WILL GENERATE LARGE SEAS AND FREEZING SPRAY, COMPLICATING TRANSITS
THROUGH OUR PASSAGES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM AKST FRIDAY
FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR
AKZ320-321-324-325.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
AKZ322.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY
FOR AKZ326-327-329.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY
FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-661-663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...BUTWIN
MARINE...AP
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