035
FXAK67 PAJK 190641
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
941 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATE FOLLOWING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SPREADING OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
OUTER COAST
-NORTHERLY OUTFLOW INTENSIFIES AS SNOW EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY,
WITH STRONG GALES DEVELOPING FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
A COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
PANHANDLE LASTING INTO FRIDAY.
WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ONSHORE FLOW, OUTER COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH YAKUTAT BEING THE FIRST
IN LINE. OVERALL TOTALS FROM SITKA NORTHWARD TO YAKUTAT ALONG THE
OUTER COAST RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN YAKUTAT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND THEN A
SECONDARY SURGE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE A RESULT OF A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND SLIDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF THURSDAY.
THIS TRANSITION FROM JUST A FRONTAL WAVE TO AN ESTABLISHED LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A SECONDARY SURGE FOR MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE IMPACTS FOR THE INNER CHANNEL
COMMUNITIES IS LESS CLEAR. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES
SOUTHWARD, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY OF A
POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM, WITH EASTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY SCOURING OUT
PRECIPITATION CLOSEST TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND AREAS IMPACTED BY
DEVELOPING GAP WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION, WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE PANHANDLE WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING UPON THE SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION
AND EXTENT OF ANY DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH,
FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITS SOUTH, A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS AGAIN BETWEEN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CANADA AND
THE RELATIVE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE
THAT STRONG GALE FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS RETURN FOR MANY INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLDER WEATHER
AND FREEZING SPRAY. FOR JUNEAU, A TAKU WIND EVENT IS BECOMING
LIKELY SATURDAY, DRIVING GUSTS HIGHER THAN 60 MPH, WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY, OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AGAIN AS THE YUKON HIGH WEAKENS AND A
NEW WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE W. THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE
AREAS LIKELY STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE MOSTLY SNOW.
AVIATION
AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
WEST, WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM JUST
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND LOWER CLOUDS
MOVING IN ALONG THE N GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS LOWER
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT WILL KEEP YAKUTAT AND THE
OUTER NE GULF COAST AT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB 3000 FT,
BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO AOB 1500 FT AROUND 12Z TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SNOW BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL NOT BE
UNTIL AROUND 16Z IN THE MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH CIGS BETWEEN 500
AND 1500 FT AND VIS DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 4 SM WITH CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO 1 SM DURING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
THE FIRST FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING
DOWN THE CLOUD CEILINGS AND DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM
THE CURRENT VFR DOWN TO MVFR OR LOWER. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE
SOONER FOR THE OUTER COASTLINE, FROM CROSS SOUND DOWN TO SITKA
EXPECTING A DROP TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR BY 16 TO 18Z. THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER MOVE IN BY
THE MORNING, WITH SNOW BEGINNING AND LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LARGELY BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z FOR JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS.
PETERSBURG SOUTHWARD WILL BEGIN TO SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON (BY THE EVENING HOURS FOR
KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE ISLAND FURTHER SOUTHWARD), WITH SNOW QUICKLY
DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR BY THE EVENING HOURS AS VIS DROPS
TO 1 TO 3 SM WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LASTING INTO THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OVERALL THESE WORSE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THE SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN AS
ANOTHER BAND PUSHES THROUGH SOON AFTER THE FIRST, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS IN VIS AND CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL SEE LARGELY MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, DESPITE THE SNOW SHOWERS, AS THE
RATES WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ALONGSIDE HAVING SOME POTENTIAL
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS KEEPING VIS LARGELY 5SM OR
HIGHER.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH TOWARD DIXON
ENTRANCE. FRESH SEAS ARE BEING GENERATED FROM THESE WINDS, WITH
BUOY 46206 REPORTING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS NEAR 8 FT AT 7 SECONDS.
THE REST OF THE COAST IS SEEING SW SWELL NEAR 3 FT AT 12 SECONDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE GULF, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES BEING FELT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WNW GALE FORCE IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GULF,
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FT TO OUR COAST, NEAR 20
FT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF, BY FRIDAY. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACT OUR REGION; MARINERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE STRONG
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG MAJOR BAYS/INLETS ALONG THE
COAST, WITH STORM FORCE NE WINDS LIKELY NEAR DANGEROUS RIVER,
BRINGING FREEZING SPRAY AND NE FRESH SEAS.
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES, A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE INTENSE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. ANTICIPATE
WINDS LARGELY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A LOW
TRANSITS SOUTH, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS BUILDING FRIDAY. MARINERS IN
YAKUTAT BAY WILL SEE GALE FORCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH STORM
FORCE IN UPPER BAY.
EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND TAKU INLET, SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. GALE
TO STRONG GALE FORCE WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT, WITH MAJOR INLETS LIKE THE STIKINE AND UNUK SEEING
HIGHER WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
SUNDAY IN LYNN CANAL. THESE WINDS, ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES,
WILL GENERATE LARGE SEAS AND FREEZING SPRAY, COMPLICATING TRANSITS
THROUGH OUR PASSAGES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM AKST FRIDAY
FOR AKZ317.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR
AKZ320-321-324-325.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
AKZ322.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY
FOR AKZ326-327-329.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY
FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...AP
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