503
FXAK67 PAJK 191810
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
910 AM AKST THU FEB 19 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
-MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SPREADING OVER THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER COAST.
-NORTHERLY OUTFLOW INTENSIFIES AS SNOW EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY,
WITH STRONG GALES DEVELOPING FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM...SNOW IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF SE AK ONCE MORE, AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, AND SENDS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT UP INTO THE PANHANDLE. ALREADY, SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE COAST AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE STARTED OVER THE AREA. SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP THROUGH
THE DAY THOUGH AREAS FURTHER INLAND WON'T SEE THE HEAVIEST RATES
ARRIVE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS.
THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. IN PARTICULAR, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT, GIVEN THE INCREASING CHANCES OF A BAND OF SNOW
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SETTING UP. WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST,
REACHING 25 KT LATE TONIGHT. LIKEWISE, WINDS ACROSS TAKU INLET AND
SUMNER STRAIT WERE ALSO INCREASED THROUGH FRIDAY, GIVEN
ANTICIPATED OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. BY
FRIDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM IS RACING SOUTHWARD, WITH SNOW
DEPARTING FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH,
FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITS SOUTH, A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS AGAIN BETWEEN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CANADA AND
THE RELATIVE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE
THAT STRONG GALE FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS RETURN FOR MANY INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLDER WEATHER
AND FREEZING SPRAY. FOR JUNEAU, A TAKU WIND EVENT IS BECOMING
LIKELY SATURDAY, DRIVING GUSTS HIGHER THAN 60 MPH, WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY, OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AGAIN AS THE YUKON HIGH WEAKENS AND A
NEW WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE W. THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE
AREAS LIKELY STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE MOSTLY SNOW.
AVIATION...IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW, THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE GULF, WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY
EAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE PAWG-PAKW LINE CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE
IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF CEILINGS 500-700 FEET PRIMARILY DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVIER SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TO ALL OF
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER 09Z (12AM LOCAL)
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN THE PAYA AREA. THE WINDS
IN AREAS NORTH OF PAEL-PAJN LINE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS INCREASING TO
35-40KTS IN THE PAHN AND PAGY AREAS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: WAVEHEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WAVES OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL REACH 8-11 FT, AND WAVES OVER THE GULF
15-20 FT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, STRENGTHENING
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL SEE GALES AND EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS EXITING
OUT OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS INTO THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
FROM CROSS SOUND NORTHWARD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MARINERS SHOULD
ANTICIPATE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG MAJOR
BAYS/INLETS ALONG THE COAST, WITH STORM FORCE NE WINDS LIKELY NEAR
DANGEROUS RIVER, BRINGING FREEZING SPRAY AND NE FRESH SEAS.
INSIDE: WINDS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES, OPENING A NARROW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE LOWER WINDS
AND SEAS ARE IN STORE FOR SE AK. A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE INTENSE
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS.
ANTICIPATE WINDS LARGELY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS SNOW MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
A LOW TRANSITS SOUTH, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS BUILDING FRIDAY. MARINERS
IN YAKUTAT BAY WILL SEE GALE FORCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
STORM FORCE IN UPPER BAY.
EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND TAKU INLET, SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. GALE
TO STRONG GALE FORCE WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT, WITH MAJOR INLETS LIKE THE STIKINE AND UNUK SEEING
HIGHER WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
SUNDAY IN LYNN CANAL. THESE WINDS, ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES,
WILL GENERATE LARGE SEAS AND FREEZING SPRAY, COMPLICATING TRANSITS
THROUGH OUR PASSAGES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ317.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ320-321-
324-325.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
AKZ326-327-329.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
FRIDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ053-651.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...BUTWIN
MARINE...AP/GFS
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