022
FXAK67 PAJK 200058
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
358 PM AKST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- NORTHERLY OUTFLOW INTENSIFIES AS SNOW EXITS THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG GALES DEVELOPING FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
SHORT TERM
A FRONTAL WAVE THAT HAS SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO AN ESTABLISHED
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IN THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THESE
HEAVIER SHOWERS IS A DEFORMATION BAND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. ONE ASPECT THAT
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY FLOW
TO SCOUR OUT PRECIPITATION CLOSEST TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS IMPACTED BY DEVELOPING GAP WINDS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS
INITIALLY UNDERPERFORMED FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM YAKUTAT
SOUTHWARD TO CROSS SOUND, HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SNOWFALL RATES ARE
STILL EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY,
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WINTRY WEATHER, SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONGER OUTFLOW EVENT
THAN SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
/SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ MID TO LONG RANGE SHOWS
A RATHER AMPLIFIED AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND FEATURES A SHARP
RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH CUTS OVER WESTERN CANADA, THE PANHANDLE, AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN GETS REPLACED BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE FROM THE ARCTIC THAT IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE FORECAST THERE ARE TWO REGIMES THAT WE ARE CONCERNED
ABOUT. THE FIRST IS THE STRONG COLD OUTFLOW THAT WILL BE OCCURRING
FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND IS A NEW STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH THAT WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MANY AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE. FIRST THE OUTFLOW. THE FORECAST HAS LARGELY NOT CHANGED
ALL THAT MUCH WITH WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FOR MANY NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL AREAS (AND POSSIBLE MIN
STORM FOR LYNN CANAL AND MAYBE TAKU INLET) THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY. SOME DETAILS HAVE CHANGED
HOWEVER, PARTICULARLY SKAGWAY (FOR HIGH OUTFLOW WINDS) AND JUNEAU
(VERY STRONG TAKU WIND/MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER
DOWNTOWN) WHERE HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TAKU WIND EVENT AT
JUNEAU HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS
SEASON WITH CROSS BARRIER FLOW REACHING 50 TO 60 KT COMBINED WITH
AN INVERSION ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS. THE CRITICAL LEVEL IS NOT
COMPLETELY IDEAL AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR (MORE
SPEED SHEAR WITH A SPEED MIN APPROACHING NEAR 5 TO 15 KT), BUT IT
IS SETTING UP AROUND 500 MB FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. SO WIND GUSTS
AROUND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS COULD REACH 70 OR 80 MPH. SEAS
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THAT HAVE LONG NORTH TO
SOUTH REACHES (LIKE LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE) HAVE ALSO
BEEN RAISED A COUPLE FEET TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS
FROM THE LONG DURATION STRONG WINDS BLOWING DOWN THE LONG LINEAR
FETCH. THE FREEZING SPRAY FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH A
WIDE AREA SEEING AT LEAST LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND (HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR AREAS LIKE LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS
PASSAGE, GLACIER BAY, AND TAKU INLET). THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND WILL ALSO COMBINE TO CREATE COLD WIND CHILLS IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WHERE WIND CHILLS
COULD PLUNGE TO NEAR 35 BELOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
HIGHWAY. OTHER AREAS HAVE THE PROBLEM OF WHERE THE WIND BLOWS
THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO WARM AIR TEMPERATURES WHILE AREAS THAT
SEE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES DON'T HAVE ANY WIND SO WIND CHILLS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY GET COLD, BUT MAY NOT GET TO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
INTO MID NEXT WEEK, WE COMPLETELY FLIP THE SCRIPT WITH OUTFLOW
DIEING OFF, TEMPERATURES STARTING TO WARM, AND A NEW STORM SYSTEM
COMING IN FROM THE NW. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE STARTING UP AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS BUT COULD WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WHILE MANY AREAS WILL BE WARMING, THIS IS IN
COMPARISON TO THE TEMPERATURES THAT WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND, SO WIDESPREAD 30S FOR HIGHS WHILE LOWS DIP INTO THE
20S. SO WHEN THE PRECIP DOES ARRIVE IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS (EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE) WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ADDING UP TO A COUPLE INCHES MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER COAST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
MOSTLY MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE WILL SEE A TREND
DOWN TO IFR ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL REGIONS BY THIS EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WE SEE
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS YAKUTAT DOWN THROUGH SITKA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AT TIMES (PERIODICALLY TO IFR) FOR THE
INNER CHANNEL AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
SNOW GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE 18Z-24Z ON FRIDAY. AS FOR
WINDS, NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OUR THINKING THERE WITH EASTERLY WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE PAYA AREA AFTER 09Z. THE WINDS IN
AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM ELFIN COVE TO JUNEAU WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS
INCREASING TO 35-40KTS IN THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREAS AS OUTFLOW
WINDS START TO INCREASE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE YUKON TERRITORY. 05/GARMON
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):THURSDAY MORNING WINDS OF
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WERE PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST, WITH
TWO PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEMS PRESENT; THE DOMINANT WAS WSW SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FT AT 12 SECONDS MASKING SE FRESH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT FROM THE
SOUTH. MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY A LOW WILL BEGIN TO MATURE IN THE
GULF, WITH STORM FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS BUILDING OUT OF COOK INLET.
THESE NW WINDS WILL BUILD LARGE NW SEAS, LIKELY REACHING NEAR 20
FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF, AND SOME NW ENERGY HITTING THE
CHICHAGOF,BARANOF, AND POW COAST, FRIDAY. STRONG GALE TO STORM
FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY BUILD THE NORTHERN COAST
FRIDAY, SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS
THAT MARINERS TRANSITING OUR COAST SHOULD BE AWARE OF STRONG
OUTFLOW FROM MAJOR OCEAN ENTRANCES AND INLETS, BRINGING FREEZING
SPRAY AND LARGE NORTHERLY FRESH SEAS OF 18 TO 20 FT. FAVORING THE
COAST WILL LIMIT WAVE POTENTIAL FROM LIMITED FETCH AVAILABILITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT BAY, CHATHAM, AND SUMNER ENTRANCES,
BUT THEN EXPOSURE TO FREEZING SPRAY IS INCREASED GREATLY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS THAT BY THIS
WEEKEND MOST INNER CHANNELS ALONG AND NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT WILL
SEE GALE TO STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS, WITH FREEZING SPRAY.
MAJOR RIVER INLETS LIKE TAKU, STIKINE, AND UNUK, WILL SEE
PARTICULARLY INTENSE CONDITIONS. PEAK WINDS SUNDAY.
WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE A WELCOME TREAT EARLY
THURSDAY AS A VERY DIMINISHED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES
OVER SOUTHEAST. THIS STORY WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS
SHIFTS SOUTH, INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO FRESH BREEZES IN THE
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. THIS IS THE FIRST SIGNAL THAT CONDITIONS
ARE ABOUT TO CHANGE, WITH A RAPID SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING, SPEEDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE IN LYNN CANAL AND
TAKU, STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES IN CHATHAM AND STEPHENS, BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OVER
MOST PASSAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDER DOING WINDS IN SUMNER STRAIT, RELYING ON HISTORIC DATA FROM
POORLY POSITIONED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE SHELTERED FROM
NORTHERLY WINDS, EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR MARINERS PLANNING
TO TRANSIT THE INSIDE THIS WEEK. YOU WILL ENCOUNTER GALE FORCE
WINDS, FREEZING SPRAY, WITH THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS IN GLACIER
BAY, LYNN CANAL, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. MAJOR RIVER CORRIDORS LIKE
TAKU, STIKINE, AND UNUK WILL ALSO SEE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ317.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ320-321-
324-325.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ323-328.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ326-327-
329.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
FRIDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ053-651.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-643-644-652-663-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-641-642-661-662.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...AP
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