135
FXAK67 PAJK 201505
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
605 AM AKST FRI FEB 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS OUTFLOW STARTS TO
BECOME MORE PREVALENT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SKAGWAY AND YAKUTAT AREAS.
OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA AS
WELL AS LYNN CANAL WITH NORTHERLY NEAR GALES TO GALES ALREADY
STARTING TO APPEAR. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY BUT SHOULD SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW IN THE GULF
PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS STARTS TO DIVE TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE LOW
DIVING TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE YUKON,
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
/SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ MID TO LONG RANGE SHOWS
A RATHER AMPLIFIED AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND FEATURES A SHARP
RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH CUTS OVER WESTERN CANADA, THE PANHANDLE, AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN GETS REPLACED BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE FROM THE ARCTIC THAT IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE FORECAST THERE ARE TWO REGIMES THAT WE ARE CONCERNED
ABOUT. THE FIRST IS THE STRONG COLD OUTFLOW THAT WILL BE OCCURRING
FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND IS A NEW STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH THAT WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MANY AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE. FIRST THE OUTFLOW. THE FORECAST HAS LARGELY NOT CHANGED
ALL THAT MUCH WITH WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FOR MANY NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL AREAS (AND POSSIBLE MIN
STORM FOR LYNN CANAL AND MAYBE TAKU INLET) THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY. SOME DETAILS HAVE CHANGED
HOWEVER, PARTICULARLY SKAGWAY (FOR HIGH OUTFLOW WINDS) AND JUNEAU
(VERY STRONG TAKU WIND/MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER
DOWNTOWN) WHERE HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TAKU WIND EVENT AT
JUNEAU HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS
SEASON WITH CROSS BARRIER FLOW REACHING 50 TO 60 KT COMBINED WITH
AN INVERSION ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS. THE CRITICAL LEVEL IS NOT
COMPLETELY IDEAL AS THERE IS NOT MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR (MORE
SPEED SHEAR WITH A SPEED MIN APPROACHING NEAR 5 TO 15 KT), BUT IT
IS SETTING UP AROUND 500 MB FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. SO WIND GUSTS
AROUND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS COULD REACH 70 OR 80 MPH. SEAS
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THAT HAVE LONG NORTH TO
SOUTH REACHES (LIKE LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE) HAVE ALSO
BEEN RAISED A COUPLE FEET TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS
FROM THE LONG DURATION STRONG WINDS BLOWING DOWN THE LONG LINEAR
FETCH. THE FREEZING SPRAY FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH A
WIDE AREA SEEING AT LEAST LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND (HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR AREAS LIKE LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS
PASSAGE, GLACIER BAY, AND TAKU INLET). THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND WILL ALSO COMBINE TO CREATE COLD WIND CHILLS IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WHERE WIND CHILLS
COULD PLUNGE TO NEAR 35 BELOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
HIGHWAY. OTHER AREAS HAVE THE PROBLEM OF WHERE THE WIND BLOWS
THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO WARM AIR TEMPERATURES WHILE AREAS THAT
SEE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES DON'T HAVE ANY WIND SO WIND CHILLS IN
OTHER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY GET COLD, BUT MAY NOT GET TO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
INTO MID NEXT WEEK, WE COMPLETELY FLIP THE SCRIPT WITH OUTFLOW
DIEING OFF, TEMPERATURES STARTING TO WARM, AND A NEW STORM SYSTEM
COMING IN FROM THE NW. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE STARTING UP AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS BUT COULD WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WHILE MANY AREAS WILL BE WARMING, THIS IS IN
COMPARISON TO THE TEMPERATURES THAT WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND, SO WIDESPREAD 30S FOR HIGHS WHILE LOWS DIP INTO THE
20S. SO WHEN THE PRECIP DOES ARRIVE IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS (EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE) WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ADDING UP TO A COUPLE INCHES MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER COAST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT / VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NE
GULF AND YAKUTAT. WIND SHEAR AS OUTFLOW FROM INTERIOR PASSES
ASSISTING THE GUSTY WINDS IN THOSE NEAR BY AREA. NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL IS VFR OR NEARLY SO ( LOCALLY IFR ) IN SNOW RESTRICTIONS
FOR HAINES. WINDS IN THE OUT FLOW ALREADY INCREASING SO ONCE THE
SNOW ENDS AND CLOUDS BREAK TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR THE HAZARDS.
CENTRAL PANHANDLE EARLY TODAY HAS WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AND CEILING IN TH 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE TO CLEAR THE LAST FLIGHT
CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW STARTS
TO DIVE TO THE SOUTH LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH,
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL START TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER COAST
WITH WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE THROUGH GAPS IN THE TERRAIN. WITH
THESE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS DEVELOPING, WIND SPEEDS WILL START TO
INCREASE TO NEAR GALES TO GALES BEFORE SEEING SOME AREAS OF STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH THE WINDS COMING OUT OF GAPS IN THE TERRAIN. SEA
STATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY BEFORE SEEING THE INFLUENCE
OF OUTFLOW CONDITIONS INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS.
INSIDE: OUTFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
A LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE GULF WILL SLOWLY START TO DIVE SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE YUKON. WINDS FOR
THE LYNN CANAL AREA DOWN TO POINT COUVERDEN HAVE ALREADY STARTING
TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE TO GALES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE MORE LATER TONIGHT AS
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY DEVELOPED FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH THE OUTFLOW WINDS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE TAKU
INLET AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND, THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
YUKON IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ317.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ319.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY FOR AKZ319.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ320-
321-324-325-330-332.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AKZ322.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ323-328.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AKZ326-327-329.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ053.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ053-644-651.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-033-643-663-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-034>036-641-642-652-661-662.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...SF
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