331
FXAK67 PAJK 210038
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
- HIGH WIND COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BRING
IMPACTS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MARINE IMPACTS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS AT GALE FORCE WITH
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE
INSIDE WATERS.
- FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE INSIDE WATERS NORTH
OF FREDERICK SOUND THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED FOR LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER
BAY.
SHORT TERM
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE AND
DRY OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, ONSHORE FLOW FROM
A BROAD CIRCULATION DIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF WILL EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ALREADY PRESENT
IN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG
NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COLD DRY AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ALONG THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND 40
BELOW AT THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE
PASS.
WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ON TAP, MULTIPLE PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR A STRONG
TAKU WIND EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS REACHING AROUND 80 TO
90 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. FOR SKAGWAY, STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THE TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SOMETIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING BASED UPON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CORE. THEREFORE THE TIMING OF
THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THAT AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, ELEVATED WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING
SNOW WHICH COULD HAMPER TRAVEL IN SOME PLACES BY SPORADICALLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MARINE IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND, SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE REGION AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, WITH SKAGWAY PICKING UP ON
SOME HIGHER WINDS. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN REGION BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY, WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS BY MONDAY EVENING. A SHORT BREAK IS FORECASTED IN WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA,
BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW TO SOUTHEAST, SIMILAR TO OUR
MOST RECENT SNOW EVENT. BY THE WEEKEND, OUTFLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON TAF ISSUANCE (00Z SAT)
VFR
NOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ALASKA WITH THE ONLY AVIATION
IMPACT OF NOTE BEING STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND JUNEAU CREATING A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
(PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTH APPROACHES) THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WE ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ADVERTISED FOR
GUSTAVUS, SITKA, AND YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG FLOW AT 925 MB FROM THE NE TO E AT 35-55KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE WE SEE SOME DIMINISHING.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF SE AK. WINDS
OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN AND CROSS SOUND HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED TO STRONG GALES WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS. THESE AREAS,
ALONG WITH TAKU INLET AND GLACIER BAY, WILL CONTINUE TO BE WHERE THE
STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LOCATED. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE,
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REACH INTO SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT, STEPHENS
PASSAGE, AND FREDERICK SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, AN
EAST TO WEST GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PROMINENT BRINGING EVEN STRONGER
WINDS OUT OF TAKU INLET AND THE STIKINE RIVER BASIN. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT LYNN CANAL
AT THIS TIME. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
FULLY DEVELOPED FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS AROUND 15 FT
POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A LARGE IMPACT DURING THIS TIME.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE THE MOST PROMINENT IN LYNN CANAL,
GLACIER BAY, TAKU INLET, AND DISENCHANTMENT BAY. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD AND REMAIN OVER THE YUKON TO BC AREA.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD, OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL START TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER.
AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE; OUT OF DANGEROUS
RIVER, OUT OF CROSS SOUND, OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND NEAR GREY
ISLET. AS OUTFLOW STRENGTHENS, AREAS OF STORM FORCE WIND ARE LIKELY
NEAR THE NE GULF COAST IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS AROUND 8 TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS THEN RELAX MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE GULF MID WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ319.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY FOR AKZ319.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR
AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-053.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ053-644-651-664.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-642-643-662-663-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ034>036-641-652-661-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...EAB
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