524
FXAK67 PAJK 211843 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
943 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2026
MID-MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING AS OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SEAK. QUICK LOOK AROUND THE AREA SHOWS
STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING LOCATED NEAR LYNN CANAL, ROCKY
ISLAND, AND TAKU INLET/STEPHENS PASSAGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 35 TO
45 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KTS, 65KTS AT ROCKY. LOOKING TOWARDS
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, SOME GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING, TRENDING AROUND 40MPH THE LAST FEW HOURS, HOWEVER
EXPECTING THIS WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE MORE MOVING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR JUNEAU REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MOVING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR HAINES GIVEN
EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION, WILL WINDS BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORY.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING UNDER
PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS PERSIST. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH TAF CYCLE WILL BE PERIODS OF ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS IN NON-SHELTERED LOCATIONS AMID STRONG OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS AND NE- LY WINDS 2KFT INDUCING MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LYNN CANAL & TAKU
INLET FOR TAF SITES LIKE PAJN, PAHN, AND PAGY. FOR S PANHANDLE,
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR PAWG WITH GAP WINDS OUT OF THE
STIKINE DELTA. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX, 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 629 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE,
PEAKING SUNDAY MORNING. OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM...CLEAR, COLD, AND BREEZY SATURDAY IN STORE. ALTHOUGH,
THE WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY KEPT TEMPERATURES MIXED AND SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS
DID NOT DEVELOP IN THE HAINES AREA, EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS
CERTAINLY PICKED UP NEAR LYNN CANAL WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
MEASURED AND THE HAINES AIRPORT OVERNIGHT. IRONICALLY, SKAGWAY DID
NOT SEE WINDS AS STRONG AS THAT, BUT DO EXPECT THEY WILL LATER
THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO MIX HIGHER WINDS SEEN AT
SUMMIT CREEK DOWN TO SEA LEVEL. LATE TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES NEAR
WHITE PASS WILL DIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO CAUSING WIND CHILLS
TO DROP TO AROUND -30F. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE WHITE PASS AREA.
WINDS FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREAS SPIKED UP TO HIGH
WIND CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PROMPTING THE WARNING TO BEGIN
EARLIER. GUSTS TO 60MPH ARE IN STORE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR EVEN HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 75MPH ARE LIKELY AND TO 90MPH
IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THESE DOWNSLOPE
MOUNTAIN WAVE TAKU WINDS, TEMPERATURE WERE WARMER OVERNIGHT FOR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, STAYING IN THE MID 20S. MEANWHILE, THE BACK OF
THE MENDENHALL VALLEY IS EXACTLY 10 DEGREES COLDER. EXPECT THAT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS TOWN TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE DAYLIGHT GETTING LONGER, SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ABOVE FREEZING (SOME WINDY SPOTS STAY IN
THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT).
LONG TERM...SUNDAY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER
THE REGION AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, WITH SKAGWAY
PICKING UP ON SOME HIGHER WINDS. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY,
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BY MONDAY EVENING. A SHORT BREAK IS
FORECASTED IN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW DROPS IN FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST, SIMILAR TO OUR MOST RECENT SNOW EVENT. BY THE WEEKEND,
OUTFLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. WINDS OVER LYNN
CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN AND CROSS SOUND ARE GUSTING 50 TO 60KT.
THESE AREAS, ALONG WITH TAKU INLET, THE NORTHERN ARMS OF GLACIER
BAY, AND THE INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WHERE THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LOCATED. AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REACH INTO
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND FREDERICK SOUND BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, AN EAST TO WEST GRADIENT BECOMES
MORE PROMINENT BRINGING EVEN STRONGER WINDS OUT OF TAKU INLET AND
THE STIKINE RIVER BASIN. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT LYNN CANAL AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY DEVELOPED
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A LARGE IMPACT DURING THIS TIME.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE THE MOST PROMINENT IN LYNN CANAL,
GLACIER BAY, TAKU INLET, AND DISENCHANTMENT BAY. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD AND REMAIN OVER THE YUKON TO BC AREA.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): AS MENTIONED ABOVE, OUTFLOW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AREAS THAT
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE; OUT OF DANGEROUS RIVER, OUT
OF CROSS SOUND, OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND NEAR GREY ISLET. AS
OUTFLOW STRENGTHENS, AREAS OF STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR
THE NE GULF COAST IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS WELL AS SEAS BUILDING
15 TO 20 FT. WINDS AND SEAS THEN RELAX MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE GULF MID WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ318-319.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM AKST
SUNDAY FOR AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-053.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-031.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ033.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ651.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>035-053-642>644-651-661>664-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-641-652-672.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...FERRIN
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
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