930
FXAK67 PAJK 220106
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
406 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE,
PEAKING SUNDAY MORNING. OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS AREAS THROUGH 9PM SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH INCREASING TO 80 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, REACHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE, DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- LOOKING AHEAD, PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
COMING TO AN END AND PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AS
A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE N GULF BEGINNING TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN SE AK. STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED THROUGHOUT
LYNN CANAL, NEAR POINT COUVERDEN, TAKU INLET, OVER SKAGWAY, AND
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU HAVE
DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WIND GUSTS ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OVER
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU ARE FORECASTED TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST
UNTIL NOON SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS STILL IN AFFECT WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH LIKELY AND NEAR 80 TO 90 MPH POSSIBLE.
STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEAR SKAGWAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS CAN CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
THAT CAN REDUCE VISIBILITIES. WE HAVE SEEN BLOWING SNOW ALOFT IN
SKAGWAY, BUT NOT AT THE SURFACE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS SE AK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF THE
WEEK.
OTHER THAN WIND, MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 30
DEGREES WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES. COLD WIND
CHILLS NEAR 30 BELOW ARE STILL VERY LIKELY ALONG THE UPPER AREAS
OF THE KLONDIKE NEAR WHITE PASS. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO UNPROTECTED AREAS.
LONG TERM
/MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FORM DURING THE DAY MONDAY IN THE
NW GULF, BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO A GALE FORCE SYSTEM AND MOVING
EASTWARD. THIS WILL SIT JUST SOUTH OF ICY BAY BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE TO THE PANHANDLE AFTER
THE COLD DRY OUTFLOW FROM THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PUSH
OF WARM AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST FRONT MOVING
IN, BRINGING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE AREAS TO
THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH ANY SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THAT
MORNING QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING. ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, INCLUDING JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS, WILL NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF THIS WARMING AS EVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW -8 DEGREES, WITH A TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AREA
RATHER THAN A FULL TRANSITION TO RAIN. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY, AND FOLLOWING BEHIND IT WITH THE LOW
DRAGGING DOWN COLDER AIR FROM THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA, THE
PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO COOL AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY
FROM N TO S.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO
BRING ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW
APPEARS TO LARGELY BE PICKING UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AS IT
STAYS STAGNANT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST, WITH NO BIG MOISTURE PLUME
TO SOURCE FROM. OVERALL AT THIS TIME EXPECTING A TOTAL OF 3 TO 9
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE. THE DETAILS ON
THIS EVENT MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AS THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW
WARM THE PANHANDLE WILL GET AS WELL AS HOW MUCH QPF IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING UNDER
PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS PERSIST. REPORTED
OVC SKIES AT PAGY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AT ELEVATION, CONFIRMED BY
FAA WEBCAMS IN THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH TAF CYCLE
REMAINS ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS IN NON- SHELTERED LOCATIONS AMID
STRONG OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND NE- LY WINDS NEAR 2KFT INDUCING
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR LYNN CANAL & TAKU INLET FOR TAF SITES LIKE PAJN, PAHN, AND
PAGY. FOR S PANHANDLE, STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR PAWG WITH GAP
WINDS OUT OF THE STIKINE DELTA. LLWS WILL DIRECTIONALLY AROUND
030 TO 070 THROUGH THE PERIOD, STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20
TO 30KTS, INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS BY 06Z FOR PAJN AS STRONG TAKU
WIND EVENT BEGINS DOWN GASTINEAU CHANNEL. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY, LOW END POP
POTENTIAL FOR S TAF OF PAKT AND PAKW NEAR 23Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT
COUVERDEN CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG GALES AROUND 40 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 KTS. SPECIFICALLY, ROCKY ISLAND HAS SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 50 KTS WITH GUST TO 70 KTS EARLIER TODAY. THESE AREAS,
ALONG WITH TAKU INLET AND GLACIER BAY, WILL CONTINUE TO BE WHERE
THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LOCATED. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER EAST TO WEST
GRADIENT, BRINGING EVEN STRONGER WINDS OUT OF TAKU INLET AND THE
STIKINE RIVER BASIN. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SUSTAINED STORM
FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS AROUND 15 FT POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES AND HAS PICKED UP THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MONITOR AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY
THROUGHOUT TODAY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE THE MOST PROMINENT IN LYNN CANAL,
GLACIER BAY, TAKU INLET, AND DISENCHANTMENT BAY. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE YUKON TO BC AREA. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE; OUT OF DANGEROUS
RIVER, OUT OF CROSS SOUND, OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND NEAR GREY
ISLET. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY OUT OF THESE
AREAS VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG BREEZES TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WITH SMALL AREAS OF
STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NE COAST. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS
AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS AROUND 8 TO 14 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS THEN RELAX MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE GULF MID WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ318.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM AKST
SUNDAY FOR AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ032.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ033.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ036.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ053.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ651.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>035-053-642>644-651-661>664-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-641-652-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
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