513
FXAK67 PAJK 221518
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
618 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS PEAKING SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS AREAS THROUGH 9PM SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING.
- LOOKING AHEAD, PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
COMING TO AN END AND PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AS
A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE N GULF BEGINNING TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE PEAKING THIS MORNING DUE TO A
1050MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL YUKON AND A DEEPENING 977MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII. WITH A NEARLY 75MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, IT'S NO WONDER THAT
THE INSIDE PASSAGE IS SEEING HIGH WINDS THIS MORNING! THE LOW TO
THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MEANWHILE, THE CANADIAN HIGH
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS WITH YESTERDAY, THE WINDS AND DOWN SLOPE EFFECTS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MIXED AND EASILY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SOME MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE LIMITED WIND CHILLS
AND SOME OF THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW TO THE DISTANT SOUTH IS SENDING A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING OUT OF THOSE CLOUDS OVER HAIDA GWAII, AND THERE IS A
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HYDER AND COFFMAN COVE BY THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE
TO THE DRY/DOWNSLOPE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, NORTH OF THIS
AREA SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM DURING THE DAY MONDAY IN THE NW GULF, BEFORE
STRENGTHENING TO A GALE FORCE SYSTEM AND MOVING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL SIT JUST SOUTH OF ICY BAY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE TO THE PANHANDLE AFTER THE COLD DRY OUTFLOW
FROM THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST FRONT MOVING IN, BRINGING THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE AREAS TO THE HIGH 30S TO
LOW 40S, WITH ANY SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THAT MORNING QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING. ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD, INCLUDING JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS, WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH OF
THIS WARMING AS EVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW -8
DEGREES, WITH A TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AREA RATHER THAN A
FULL TRANSITION TO RAIN. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND FOLLOWING BEHIND IT WITH THE LOW DRAGGING DOWN
COLDER AIR FROM THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA, THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN
TO COOL AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM N TO S.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO
BRING ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW
APPEARS TO LARGELY BE PICKING UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AS IT
STAYS STAGNANT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST, WITH NO BIG MOISTURE PLUME
TO SOURCE FROM. OVERALL AT THIS TIME EXPECTING A TOTAL OF 3 TO 9
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE. THE DETAILS ON
THIS EVENT MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AS THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW
WARM THE PANHANDLE WILL GET AS WELL AS HOW MUCH QPF IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FROM A SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE SENDING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ARE STILL LOW AT AROUND 40% OR LESS,
AND WITH THE CURRENT LOW RH COMBINED WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN AN OVERCAST CLOUD
DECK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. INDICATION OF PRECIPITATION IN
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH EACH RUN.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KTS FOR COMMUNITIES
EXPOSED TO A NORTHERLY WIND, WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS
SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU SEEING GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KTS. THESE STRONG
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL STILL BE
OPTIMAL FOR SKAGWAY TO HOLD ONTO GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND WRANGELL
TO ATTEMPT TO HOLD ONTO GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS FROM REMAINING OUTFLOW.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND RECENT LIGHT SNOW ON THE GROUND,
BLOWING SNOW IS PROBABLE FOR SKAGWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD LLWS, MAINLY SPEED SHEAR, OF AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THOUGH THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE OUTFLOW STARTS TO RELAX. THE MAIN
PLACES THAT LLWS IS SUPPOSED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IS
FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY IN JUNEAU COMING OUT OF TAKU INLET AND
IN WRANGELL COMING OUT OF THE STIKINE DELTA.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW IS PEAKING THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND CENTRAL INTERIOR PASSES.
WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL TO POINT COUVERDEN ARE MEASURING 40-50 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 KTS. THESE AREAS, ALONG WITH TAKU INLET
AND GLACIER BAY, WILL CONTINUE TO BE WHERE THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE LOCATED. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SE ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER EAST TO WEST GRADIENT, BRINGING EVEN
STRONGER WINDS OUT OF TAKU INLET AND THE STIKINE RIVER BASIN.
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF BEHM AND PORTLAND CANAL ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE N-S NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS
10-15 FT POSSIBLE. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES WHERE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE HAPPENING. WILL SEE THAT BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE; OUT OF DANGEROUS
RIVER, OUT OF CROSS SOUND, OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND NEAR GREY
ISLET. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY OUT OF THESE
AREAS VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AROUND 8 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS THEN RELAX MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE GULF MID WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-013.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012-031.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ032.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>034-642>644-651-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-053-641-652-672.
SHORT TERM...FERRIN
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...FERRIN/EAB
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page