242
FXAK67 PAJK 222027 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1127 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2026
MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SE AK.
WIND SPEEDS REMAINED MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT BAY. USING SATELLITE IMAGERY, WE COULD SEE
FREEZING SPRAY AND CONTINUED NE GALE FORCE WINDS COMING OUT OF
YAKUTAT BAY AND THE DANGEROUS RIVER VALLEY. IN TURN, SURROUNDING
MARINE ZONES WERE UPGRADED TO CONTINUE GALE WARNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
KTS CONTINUE ACROSS LYNN CANAL INTO N CHATHAM STRAIT. LAND WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CONTINUE OVER SKAGWAY WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
MPH CONTINUING OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, THANE, AND SOUTH DOUGLAS. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
SKAGWAY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL TONIGHT.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER SKC TO FEW SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW- END PRECIP CHANCES FOR S
PANHANDLE TAF SITES 00Z TO 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT IN N PAC
SWINGS WEAKENING FRONT NORTHWARD, BUT WITH DRY SURFACE OUTFLOW
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING, NOT OPTIMISTIC ON MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KTS FOR
COMMUNITIES EXPOSED TO A NORTHERLY WIND, WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU SEEING GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KTS. THESE
STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR MANY LOCATIONS, THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL STILL BE OPTIMAL FOR SKAGWAY TO HOLD ONTO GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS AND WRANGELL TO ATTEMPT TO HOLD ONTO GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS FROM REMAINING OUTFLOW. WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND RECENT LIGHT
SNOW ON THE GROUND, BLOWING SNOW IS PROBABLE FOR SKAGWAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD LLWS, MAINLY SPEED SHEAR, OF AROUND 30 TO
35 KTS CONTINUES DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THOUGH
THIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE OUTFLOW STARTS TO RELAX. THE
MAIN PLACES THAT LLWS IS SUPPOSED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
IS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY IN JUNEAU COMING OUT OF TAKU INLET
AND IN WRANGELL COMING OUT OF THE STIKINE DELTA.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 618 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS PEAKING SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS AREAS THROUGH 9PM SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST GUSTS SUNDAY
MORNING.
- LOOKING AHEAD, PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
COMING TO AN END AND PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AS
A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE N GULF BEGINNING TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE PEAKING THIS MORNING DUE TO A 1050MB HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL YUKON AND A DEEPENING 977MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII. WITH A NEARLY 75MB PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, IT'S NO WONDER THAT THE INSIDE PASSAGE
IS SEEING HIGH WINDS THIS MORNING! THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MEANWHILE, THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS WITH YESTERDAY, THE WINDS AND DOWN SLOPE EFFECTS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MIXED AND EASILY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SOME MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE LIMITED WIND CHILLS
AND SOME OF THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW TO THE DISTANT SOUTH IS SENDING A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING OUT OF THOSE CLOUDS OVER HAIDA GWAII, AND THERE IS A
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HYDER AND COFFMAN COVE BY THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE
TO THE DRY/DOWNSLOPE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, NORTH OF THIS
AREA SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FORM DURING THE DAY MONDAY IN THE
NW GULF, BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO A GALE FORCE SYSTEM AND MOVING
EASTWARD. THIS WILL SIT JUST SOUTH OF ICY BAY BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE TO THE PANHANDLE AFTER
THE COLD DRY OUTFLOW FROM THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PUSH
OF WARM AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST FRONT MOVING
IN, BRINGING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE AREAS TO
THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH ANY SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THAT
MORNING QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING. ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, INCLUDING JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS, WILL NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF THIS WARMING AS EVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW -8 DEGREES, WITH A TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AREA
RATHER THAN A FULL TRANSITION TO RAIN. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY, AND FOLLOWING BEHIND IT WITH THE LOW
DRAGGING DOWN COLDER AIR FROM THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA, THE
PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO COOL AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY
FROM N TO S.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO
BRING ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW
APPEARS TO LARGELY BE PICKING UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AS IT
STAYS STAGNANT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST, WITH NO BIG MOISTURE PLUME
TO SOURCE FROM. OVERALL AT THIS TIME EXPECTING A TOTAL OF 3 TO 9
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE. THE DETAILS ON
THIS EVENT MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AS THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW
WARM THE PANHANDLE WILL GET AS WELL AS HOW MUCH QPF IS EXPECTED.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW IS PEAKING THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND CENTRAL INTERIOR PASSES.
WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL TO POINT COUVERDEN ARE MEASURING 40-50 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 KTS. THESE AREAS, ALONG WITH TAKU INLET
AND GLACIER BAY, WILL CONTINUE TO BE WHERE THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE LOCATED. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SE ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER EAST TO WEST GRADIENT, BRINGING EVEN
STRONGER WINDS OUT OF TAKU INLET AND THE STIKINE RIVER BASIN.
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF BEHM AND PORTLAND CANAL ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE N-S NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS
10-15 FT POSSIBLE. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES WHERE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE HAPPENING. WILL SEE THAT BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE; OUT OF DANGEROUS
RIVER, OUT OF CROSS SOUND, OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND NEAR GREY
ISLET. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY OUT OF THESE
AREAS VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AROUND 8 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS THEN RELAX MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE GULF MID WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-013.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012-031.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>034-053-643-644-651-661>663-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-641-642-652-664.
SHORT TERM...FERRIN
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...NM/ZTK
MARINE...EAB
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page