839
FXAK67 PAJK 230058
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
358 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS AREAS THROUGH 9PM SUNDAY.
- LOOKING AHEAD, PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
COMING TO AN END AND PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AS
A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE N GULF BEGINNING TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL START TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR ALL GALE
WARNINGS AND LAND WIND HAZARDS TO END TONIGHT. AS FOR RIGHT NOW,
CONTINUED WINDS OF 45 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 KTS CONTINUE ACROSS
LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. FOR LAND
WINDS, STRONG GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, THANE, AND
SOUTH DOUGLAS WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGH
WIND WARNING ENDING TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN OVER
SKAGWAY WITH CONTINUED GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DECREASING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
FOR PRECIPITATION, THE LOW SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE IS SENDING LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND,
ANNETTE ISLAND AND INTO KETCHIKAN. THIS SNOW HAS CREATED TIMES OF
LOWERED VISIBILITIES, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECASTED AS
THIS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AT THE VERY END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. ON
MONDAY NIGHT, SNOW WILL MAINLY BE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE AK
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SNOW IS ONCE MORE IN THE FORECAST FOR SE AK. TUESDAY DAWNS WITH
LIGHT SNOW ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. THROUGH THE DAY, ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD FURTHER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE CULPRIT IS A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF, WHICH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE WEAKENS.
THIS MEANS PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS 3 DAY
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AS
WARM AIR PUSHES NORTH. THE WARM AIR WILL HOWEVER BE QUICKLY
PUSHED BACK OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THE GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY
TO BE ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NE GULF COAST, WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS LYNN CANAL.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER SKC TO FEW SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW- END PRECIP CHANCES FOR S
PANHANDLE TAF SITES 00Z TO 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT IN N PAC
SWINGS WEAKENING FRONT NORTHWARD WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS &
VISBYS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KTS, WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU SEEING GUSTS CLOSER
TO 40 KTS. THESE STRONG GUSTS AND OVERALL WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MANY LOCATIONS, THOUGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL STILL BE OPTIMAL FOR SKAGWAY TO HOLD
ONTO GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND WRANGELL TO ATTEMPT TO HOLD ONTO GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS FROM REMAINING OUTFLOW. WIDESPREAD LLWS, MAINLY
SPEED SHEAR, OF AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS CONTINUES DUE TO THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OUTFLOW STARTS TO RELAX.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BUT IT WILL START TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT
COUVERDEN CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG GALES AROUND 40 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 KTS. THESE AREAS, ALONG WITH TAKU INLET AND GLACIER BAY, WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WHERE THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LOCATED. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE, THE EAST TO WEST
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS OUT OF TAKU INLET AND
THE STIKINE RIVER BASIN. FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AROUND 10 TO 14 FT SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO 2 TO 4
FT.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT
LEAVING AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IN FAR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. A CHANGE IN PATTERN THEN OCCURS MID WEEK AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE; OUT OF DANGEROUS RIVER,
OUT OF CROSS SOUND, OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND NEAR GREY ISLET. WE
HAVE ALSO SEEN AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY OUT OF THESE AREAS VIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS
AROUND 6 TO 10 FT SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING
MONDAY. WINDS ALSO RELAX INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE GULF MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG BREEZES TO
GALE FORCE (27 TO 37 KT) WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-053-643-644-651-663-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ034>036-641-642-661-662-664-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
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