319
FXAK67 PAJK 231431
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
531 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS SUBSIDE MONDAY.
- LOOKING AHEAD, PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
COMING TO AN END AND PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AS
A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE N GULF BEGINNING TUESDAY.
- SNOW STARTS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
ACCUMULATION IN JUNEAU AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, ACCUMULATING TO 3
TO 4 INCHES STARTING LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE
HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JUNEAU.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IS HOW
MONDAY STARTS. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SNOW AMOUNTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL VARY, BUT COULD
BE 1 TO 3 INCHES, AND CONTINUING INTO IN TUESDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND JUNEAU MAY REACH UP TO 4 INCHES BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY, WITH SNOW STARTING ABOUT MIDNIGHT, SO THE
MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT. SNOW WILL START TO REACH
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY EARLY TUESDAY.
NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY WITH
ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SNOW IS ONCE MORE IN
THE FORECAST FOR SE AK. TUESDAY DAWNS WITH LIGHT SNOW ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THROUGH THE
DAY, ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
THE CULPRIT IS A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WHICH WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE WEAKENS.
THIS MEANS PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS 3 DAY
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AS
WARM AIR PUSHES NORTH. THE WARM AIR WILL HOWEVER BE QUICKLY
PUSHED BACK OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THE GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY
TO BE ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NE GULF COAST, WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS LYNN CANAL.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH EITHER CLEAR SKIES OR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AOA
7000 FT. THE TAKU WIND EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTHERN
DOUGLAS HAS ENDED AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE,
MEANING REMAINING LLWS, MAINLY SPEED SHEAR, OVER JUNEAU AND
MAINLY THROUGH GASTINEAU CHANNEL AROUND 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS CALM
DOWN. A WEAKENING OUTER BAND OF A SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN BRINGING INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH KLAWOCK REPORTING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SNOW CAUSING LIMITED VIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. THESE
FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION, THOUGH OTHER SHORT- LIVED POCKETS MAY POP UP AS THE
OVERCAST LAYER AOB 4000 FT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE
HOLDING ON IN A FEW LOCATIONS, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS
IN SKAGWAY, REACHING HAINES AT UP TO 25 KT GUSTS, AND IN KLAWOCK
UP TO 20 KTS. THESE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD, AROUND 12 TO 3 AM ON TUESDAY.
AS THIS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE, IT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB 2500 FT AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL CAUSE LIMITED VIS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WITH THE FRONT, AND THOUGH THEY WON'T
BE AS STRONG AS HAS BEEN SEEN THIS WEEK, THEY WILL STAY RELATIVELY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LONGER
DURATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD, REACHING YAKUTAT AT THE VERY END OF MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR COMMUNITIES SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN CONTINUE TO
SEE AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. THESE AREAS, ALONG
WITH TAKU INLET AND GLACIER BAY, WILL CONTINUE TO BE WHERE THE
STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LOCATED. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE, THE EAST TO WEST GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS OUT OF TAKU INLET AND THE STIKINE
RIVER BASIN. FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND 8
TO 10 FT SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MONDAY TO 2 TO 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE LEAVING AREAS OF
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IN FAR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
A CHANGE IN PATTERN THEN OCCURS MID WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE; OUT OF
DANGEROUS RIVER, OUT OF CROSS SOUND, OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND
NEAR GREY ISLET. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS
AROUND 6 TO 10 FT SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE BY EARLY MORNING BEFORE ONCE
AGAIN BUILDING MONDAY. WINDS ALSO RELAX INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE GULF MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG BREEZES TO GALE FORCE (27 TO 37 KT) WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
TUESDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031-641>643-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page