799
FXAK67 PAJK 231841 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
941 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2026
UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS AREAS THROUGH 9PM SUNDAY.
- LOOKING AHEAD, PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
COMING TO AN END AND PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AS
A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE N GULF BEGINNING TUESDAY.
- SNOW STARTS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATION IN JUNEAU AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ACCUMULATING TO 3 TO 4 INCHES STARTING LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
JUNEAU.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IS HOW
MONDAY STARTS. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SNOW AMOUNTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL VARY, BUT COULD
BE 1 TO 3 INCHES, AND CONTINUING INTO IN TUESDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND JUNEAU MAY REACH UP TO 4 INCHES BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY, WITH SNOW STARTING ABOUT MIDNIGHT, SO THE
MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT. SNOW WILL START TO REACH
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY EARLY TUESDAY.
NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY WITH
ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SNOW IS ONCE MORE IN THE FORECAST FOR SE AK. TUESDAY DAWNS WITH
LIGHT SNOW ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. THROUGH THE DAY, ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD FURTHER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE CULPRIT IS A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF, WHICH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE WEAKENS.
THIS MEANS PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS 3 DAY
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AS
WARM AIR PUSHES NORTH. THE WARM AIR WILL HOWEVER BE QUICKLY
PUSHED BACK OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THE GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY
TO BE ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NE GULF COAST, WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS LYNN CANAL.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER BC CONTINUES TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVED IN EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE
PANHANDLE LOWERING CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH CIGS AOB 2500
FT AND VIS DROPPING TO IFR AT TIMES AS SNOWFALL RATES GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, REMAINING ELEVATED
AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. YAKUTAT WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE
THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
SHORT AFTER BY THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN CONTINUE TO
SEE AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. THESE AREAS, ALONG
WITH TAKU INLET AND GLACIER BAY, WILL CONTINUE TO BE WHERE THE
STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LOCATED. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE, THE EAST TO WEST GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS OUT OF TAKU INLET AND THE STIKINE
RIVER BASIN. FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND 8
TO 10 FT SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MONDAY TO 2 TO 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE LEAVING AREAS OF
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IN FAR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
A CHANGE IN PATTERN THEN OCCURS MID WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE; OUT OF
DANGEROUS RIVER, OUT OF CROSS SOUND, OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND
NEAR GREY ISLET. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS
AROUND 6 TO 10 FT SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE BY EARLY MORNING BEFORE ONCE
AGAIN BUILDING MONDAY. WINDS ALSO RELAX INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE GULF MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG BREEZES TO GALE FORCE (27 TO 37 KT) WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
TUESDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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