261
FXAK67 PAJK 021822
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
922 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2026
UPDATE
18Z MORNING UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION, WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
A STATIONARY FRONT ARCS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE RESULTING IN
IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN PAGS AND
PAWG. SOUTH OF PAWG MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH RAIN. ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE. AFTER 05Z A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER CEILINGS FOR AREAS S OF THE PAWG-PAAP
LINE. FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, INCLUDING PASI, PAPG AND PAWG
TERMINALS PERIODS OF A RAIN SNOW MIX CAUSING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AS THE STATIONARY FRONT IS REPLACED BY THE WARM FRONT.
DURING THIS PERIOD THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR THIS REGION. THE STATIONARY FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL
SLOWLY FORCE THE MOISTER AIR NORTHWARDS TOWARDS PAGY AND PAYA
THROUGH THE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH TO THESE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
0530 AM MONDAY MARCH 2, 2026
SYNOPSIS...
- MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE AK PANHANDLE INTO
MONDAY. MULTIPLE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
3 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A FOLLOW
UP SNOW EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HEAVIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WITH POTENTIALLY
LIGHTER SNOW NORTH OF ANGOON DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LASTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU SOUTHWARD. THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF WRANGELL TO JUST
SOUTH OF SITKA AND HAS NOT MOVED ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH
OF THAT LINE, RAIN IS THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE AT SEA LEVEL, BUT THE
INLAND AREAS ON THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND HIGHWAYS LIKELY ARE
SEEING SNOW BASED ON AIR TEMPERATURES FROM RWIS SITES AT HOLLIS
HIGHWAY, AND HARRIS RIVER PASS. NORTH OF THE SNOW, OUTFLOW WINDS
CONTINUE DOWN LYNN CANAL, OUT OF CROSS SOUND, AND OUT OF THE
PASSES E OF YAKUTAT. LYNN CANAL IN PARTICULAR IS STILL BLOWING
AROUND MIN GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY STAY AT THAT
STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY.
THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY FEATURES A SHORT BREAK IN BETWEEN THE
CURRENT SYSTEM AND THE ONSET OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
LAST NIGHT'S PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT SUPPORTED IT MOVES
INTO CANADA. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ARCTIC BOUNDARY ARE NOT REALLY
GOING ANYWHERE THOUGH SO WHILE THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH, IT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY SO EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIP TO STICK AROUND INTO TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY MEANWHILE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD DRIFT THAT COULD MOVE IT FAR ENOUGH TO GET
PETERSBURG, WRANGELL AND KAKE INTO A MIX OF PRECIP RATHER THEN ALL
SNOW.
WIND CONCERNS WILL MAINLY BE OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHANNELS AND GULF COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE WEAKENS. HOWEVER, THE OUTFLOW
WILL THEN RAMP BACK UP TONIGHT AND BECOME STRONGER BY TUESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO FALLING SLP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTING TO MOVE
IN. EXPECT MIN TO MODERATE GALES DOWN LYNN CANAL, OUT OF CROSS
SOUND, AND OUT OF THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH, FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE SE WILL BE THE CONCERN
TONIGHT, BUT THEY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE OUTFLOW
FARTHER NORTH, ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT 25 TO 30 KT BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/...ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL WORK TO KEEP
SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN AFTER THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LOW MOVES NE INTO THE
GULF BEFORE LOOKING TO MOVE UP INTO THE N COASTLINE, THROUGH MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT POSITION OR TRAJECTORY
OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES IN WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENSEMBLES. DESPITE THE SPREAD ON THE LOW POSITIONS FOR BOTH THIS
SYSTEM AND THE NEXT MOVING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE LOW CENTER STAYING FURTHER WESTWARD, BETWEEN SOUTH
OF YAKUTAT TO THE NW GULF NEAR KAYAK ISLAND. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF
THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM IS RELATED TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND SE AK. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH NEARLY HALF OF THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS PUSHING FOR A MORE SW-LY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE LOW
PUSHING IN MORE DIRECTLY INTO THE NE GULF AND CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLE, AND HALF SUGGESTING A SOLUTION OF THE LOW REMAINING
FURTHER WEST TOWARDS ANCHORAGE WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE GULF AND THE TROUGH STAYING A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW MORE CONFIDENCE FOR THE COOLING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AS THE LOW CENTER BEGINS TO BRING SOME COLDER AIR DOWN AND
ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE, REGARDLESS OF THE POSITIONING OF
THE LOW CENTER BEING A BIT FURTHER WEST, WITH A MORE ZONAL TO ALMOST
NW-LY FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT.
THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND OVERALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
SOLUTIONS ARE MAKING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME, PARTICULARLY FOR YAKUTAT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW
THURSDAY WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH SNOWFALL THEY RECEIVE.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT LOOKING TOO IMPACTFUL FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SYSTEM MAY BRING A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION. THE CONTINUED WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION MORE OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
TO RAIN, AND TRANSITION THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO MORE OF A WINTRY
MIX WITH THE WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. NOT AS MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS REASON, EVEN AS QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE HIGHER FOR THE FRIDAY /
SATURDAY SYSTEM, DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS PUSHING IN ACROSS THE N
PANHANDLE.
AVIATION...AS OF 14Z YAKUTAT, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY, CONTINUE TO
ENJOY VFR, WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 50 KNOTS
IN LYNN CANAL. NOT EXPECTING THAT TO CHANGE MONDAY. THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR SOUTH TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE IS CURRENTLY SEEING
IFR FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND/OR LOW CEILINGS. SNOW LINE IS
NEAR PAPG/PAWG, WITH RAIN BEING REPORTED SOUTH. IFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING, EITHER FROM SNOW OR LOW CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TAF SITES LIKE PAPG AND PAWG. CONDITIONS
WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
FIZZLE OUT. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MONDAY NIGHT A
MORE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BRINGING IFR SNOW BACK TO THE CENTRAL REGION, WITH HEAVIER SNOW
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE SHIFTS NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WRANGELL SEEING THIS
THREAT NEAR 20Z MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SITKA NEAR 06Z TUESDAY.
MARINE...
INNER CHANNELS: OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR INNER
CHANNELS MARINERS. LYNN CANAL STILL FEATURES MIN GALE FORCE WINDS
THIS MORNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED OUT OF CROSS
SOUND, THE PASSES E OF YAKUTAT AND TAKU INLET. SLIGHT DIMINISHING
TREND EXPECTED TODAY WHERE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY
ABOUT 5 TO 10 KT BY AFTERNOON, BUT THEY WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TO MODERATE GALES EXPECTED DOWN LYNN CANAL,
AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE
USUAL OUTFLOW AREAS OF THE NORTH. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE
WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG FETCH
DOWN LYNN CANAL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHER SEAS IN SOUTHERN LYNN
AND NORTHERN CHATHAM (LIKELY BUILDING UP TO 10 TO 11 FT BY TUESDAY
MORNING). FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE NORTHERN
CHANNELS WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY FOR NORTHERN LYNN THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT. IN THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DOMINATE WITH MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONT STARTS TO MOVE IN.
GULF WATERS:
OUTFLOW OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND THE PASSES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THOSE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
START RAMPING BACK UP TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.
EXPECT MODERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND BY TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE EQUIVALENT GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED OUT OF THE
INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AREAS SOUTH OF 57N
WILL SEE MORE FRONTAL DRIVEN WINDS OUT OF THE E AND S ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT MAX AS THE FRONT MOVES W TO E.
SEAS ARE MOSTLY 7 FT OR LESS (WITH A SW SWELL OF AROUND 2 TO 5 FT
AT 11 SEC) EXCEPT IN THE OUTFLOW AREAS WHERE SEAS COULD BE AS HIGH
AS 9 FT. HIGHEST SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE OUTFLOW AREAS
WHICH COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 14 FT TUES MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR AKZ320>325-327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ323-
327.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ326.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-643-644-663-664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>034-036-053-641-642-651-661-
662-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...BUTWIN
MARINE...EAL
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