526
FXAK67 PAJK 030631
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
931 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2026
UPDATE
AFTER 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
AS PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS IN THE SKAGWAY AREA SO
TURBULENCE LIKELY TO BE HAZARD OF CONCERN THERE. REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL START WITH IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS, WITH OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES THE
IN THE SNOW AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ACROSS MOST THE PANHANDLE ARE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 313 PM MONDAY MARCH 2
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WHILE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE DIMINISHED EARLIER TODAY, A
PERSISTENT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR SUMNER STRAIT, WITH COLD,
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, OVERRUNNING WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE NEXT LOW OUT IN THE GULF
APPROACHES, WITH OVERRUNNING ENHANCED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUMNER STRAIT
NORTH. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH TOMORROW AND WITH THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FROM SITKA TO KAKE
AND PETERSBURG. HELD OFF ON THE WIND SHIFT AND SWITCHOVER UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING. FURTHER NORTH, LIKELY TO SEE ALL SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ANGOON AND THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, WITH 8
TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED. FOR SITKA OVER TO KAKE AND PETERSBURG, SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
OCCURS. PRELIMINARY SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED. FOR
WRANGELL AND NORTHERN POW, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4+ INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL
STRETCH OUT INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
BY LATER TUESDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO YAKUTAT AND THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR YAKUTAT, WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY, MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOW TOTALS DUE TO
THE PREVAILING COLD, DRY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD DELAY
THE ONSET AND REDUCE AMOUNTS.
THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG
GUSTS FOR SKAGWAY AND COLD TEMPS FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY TONIGHT. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY WILL LEAD TO INTERMITTENT BLOWING SNOW. WINDS ALSO
INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS, ALSO
LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...NO BREAKS IN THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN, AS WAVE AFTER WAVE OF SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
DRIVEN BY AN ACTIVE STEERING FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE LONG TERM
FORECAST KICKS OFF WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEPART
THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW FROM THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, INCLUDING JUNEAU; WHILE RISING SNOW
LEVELS WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR MOST
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SURGES NORTHWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, COLDER AIR
STARTS TO FILTER BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW.
BY THE TIME THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT IT
TO BE AN INITIALLY ALL SNOW EVENT. ALTHOUGH A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN (AFTER AN INITIAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW) IS EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SE AK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WILL PROVE MORE RESILIENT. PRECIP FOR
THESE AREAS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SNOW UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING,
BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING OVER A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANYWHERE
FROM 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS NEXT EVENT,
UNLESS A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO RAIN RESULTS IN LOWER TOTALS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THIS, A STRONG FRONT LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY, WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION SWIFTLY OVERWHELMS WHAT LITTLE COLD AIR REMAINS,
ALTHOUGH YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHERN KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIVEN
BY ONSHORE FLOW SWEEPING INTO SE AK MAY CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND ISOLATED HAZE
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WARM FRONT MOVES ITS WAY
NORTH OVER THE AK PANHANDLE. BY MID MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SNOW ARE EXPECTED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA, OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
PAWG AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE, HOWEVER, SOME PERIODS OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
LLWS UP TO +/- 40KTS (SEE TAF FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS).
FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
ARE LIKELY AS THE PREEXISTING BOUNDARY WOBBLES AROUND IN ADDITION
TO THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH. BUT OVERALL, EXPECT PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE/OTHERWISE, IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES LEADING INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO JUMP UP TO STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NEAR
GALES TO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR NEAR CROSS SOUND AS WELL AS OFFSHORE
FROM THE DANGEROUS RIVER REGION. AS THIS LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALONG THE FRONT SIDE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NEAR CROSS SOUND. ONE CONCERN THOUGH WILL BE ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY. SEAS DURING
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-14 FT DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE LARGEST SEAS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR THE CAPE FAIRWEATHER AREA TO CROSS SOUND REGION. AS THE
WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
TO 14-19 FT WITH MOST OF THE REGION SEEING WAVES RANGE FROM 7-11 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET AREAS. THIS WINDS
HAVE BEEN REACHING DOWN TO POINT COUVERDEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
FOR OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WITH THE CONTINUING OUTFLOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES, FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTHERN WATER WAYS. THIS FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WINDS
CONTINUING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FULLY DEVELOPED FOR LYNN
CANAL AND STEPHENS WITH THE CONTINUED OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE SEAS
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN TO POINT COUVERDEN AND THE NORTHERN
CHATHAM STRAIT AREA BEFORE EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING ONCE OUTFLOW WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO NOON AKST WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ317.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ318.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ319.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO NOON AKST WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ320>322-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ323-326-
327.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ324.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012-053.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ651.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-643-644-651-663-664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>034-036-641-642-661-662-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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