487
FXAK67 PAJK 031617
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
717 AM AKST TUE MAR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
- COLD, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS.
- NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LASTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS TO EFFECT THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEK IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS FAR NORTH AS GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU SO FAR. THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE AT SEA LEVEL AS OF 4 AM STRETCHES FROM ETOLIN
ISLAND, ACROSS SUMNER STRAIT AND OVER TO THE SITKA AREA. SITKA
ITSELF HAS ACTUALLY BEEN RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT, BUT HAS JUST
STARTED TO SHOW A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
START TO MOVE INTO THE CITY. FARTHER NORTH, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
RULES THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT THIS
MORNING. LYNN CANAL HAS BEEN BLOWING MIN GALE FORCE ALL NIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT RANGE, THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AIR OUTFLOW FROM
THE NORTH AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM
CONTINUES. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME MOVEMENT
NORTH TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY GET AS FAR AS SOUTHERN STEPHENS
AND PERIL STRAIT BEFORE STALLING TONIGHT. PETERSBURG, WRANGELL,
KAKE, AND SITKA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE SNOW CHANGE TO A MIX OR
ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY AROUND THE ICY STRAIT AREA, JUNEAU,
AND ANGOON WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER NORTH HAINES, SKAGWAY, AND YAKUTAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
SOME SNOW OUT OF THIS AS WELL, BUT THE STRONGER OUTFLOW IN THOSE
AREAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW FALLS AND THE GREATEST OVERRUNNING
IS FURTHER SOUTH ANYWAY. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN
UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY, THOUGH SITKA IS CLOSE TO HAVING ITS
ADVISORY CANCELLED IF PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY RAIN THIS
MORNING.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE A TAIL OF TWO DIFFERENT REGIMES. SOUTH
OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY, SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL DUE TO THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND LOW IMPACTING THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE ONLY TOPPED
OUT AROUND 20 TO 25 KT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ANY HIGHER.
HIGHEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT AS
VARIOUS FRONTAL BANDS MOVE THROUGH. NORTH OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY,
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OUT OF THE
VARIOUS INTERIOR PASSES AND CHANNELS IN THE NORTH. HIGHEST WINDS
THERE WILL BE TODAY BEFORE THEY START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT,
DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NO BREAKS IN THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN, AS WAVE AFTER WAVE OF SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
DRIVEN BY AN ACTIVE STEERING FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE LONG TERM
FORECAST KICKS OFF WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEPART
THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW FROM THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, INCLUDING JUNEAU; WHILE RISING SNOW
LEVELS WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR MOST
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SURGES NORTHWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, COLDER AIR
STARTS TO FILTER BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW.
BY THE TIME THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT IT
TO BE AN INITIALLY ALL SNOW EVENT. ALTHOUGH A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN (AFTER AN INITIAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW) IS EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SE AK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WILL PROVE MORE RESILIENT. PRECIP FOR
THESE AREAS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SNOW UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING,
BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING OVER A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANYWHERE
FROM 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS NEXT EVENT,
UNLESS A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO RAIN RESULTS IN LOWER TOTALS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THIS, A STRONG FRONT LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY, WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION SWIFTLY OVERWHELMS WHAT LITTLE COLD AIR REMAINS,
ALTHOUGH YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHERN KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIVEN
BY ONSHORE FLOW SWEEPING INTO SE AK MAY CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
A COMPLEX PATTERN EMERGES FOR TODAY AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WAIVERS
BACK AND FORTH IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, PUSHING FURTHER NORTH BY
TUESDAY EVENING. SIMPLE MESSAGE IS UNFAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS
FROM IFR TO LIFR +SN AND CEILINGS AOB 1000 FT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM PASI TO PAPG. SOUTH OF THIS LINE, RA AND
CEILINGS OF 1200 TO 3000 FT. SNOW RATES WILL PEAK TONIGHT, WITH
SUSTAINED LIFR +SN FORECASTED FOR PAJN AND PAGS. AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN COAST, WHICH HAVE ENJOYED VFR THE
LAST 24 HOURS, WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH IFR SN
REACHING PAYA NEAR 4PM TO 6PM AKST.
LLWS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE PRESENT AS A BAND OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND
NORTH, WITH PEAK WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM AROUND 53N 145W
THIS MORNING TO NEAR CAPE DECISION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THAT TIME PERIOD. THE PREDOMINATE CHANGE WILL BE FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION TO A MORE W OR NW DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS CURRENTLY ARE OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND THE PASSES E OF YAKUTAT
THIS MORNING (GALE FORCE) AS COLD AIR OUTFLOW PERSISTS. THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT.
ONCE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30
KT AGAIN DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CURRENT SYSTEM BEFORE THEY DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS ARE AROUND 6 TO 14 FT (SWELL OF 2 FT OR LESS) WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTFLOW AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS IN
THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS OUTFLOW DECREASE,
HOWEVER THE SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE (TO
14 TO 16 FT) INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED NW WINDS AS WELL
AS SOME SW TO W SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 10 FT MOVING INTO THAT AREA.
SEAS THEN SUBSIDE INTO WED NIGHT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE A TAIL OF TWO DIFFERENT
REGIMES. FROM SUMNER STRAIT SOUTHWARD, SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL DUE
TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW IMPACTING THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
ONLY TOPPED OUT AROUND 20 TO 25 KT (MAINLY IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE)
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ANY HIGHER. HIGHEST SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT AS VARIOUS FRONTAL BANDS
MOVE THROUGH. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 5 FT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. NORTH OF SUMNER, WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OUT OF THE VARIOUS
INTERIOR PASSES AND CHANNELS IN THE NORTH (TAKU INLET, LYNN CANAL,
AND STEPHENS PASSAGE). HIGHEST WINDS THERE WILL BE TODAY BEFORE
THEY START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS IN MOST AREAS ARE AROUND 5
TO 7 FT, BUT LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN CHATHAM, AND STEPHENS ARE LIKELY
SEEING SEAS UP TO 13 FT OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
CONTINUOUSLY BLOWING DOWN THE LONG LINEAR CHANNELS ALLOWING SEAS
TO BUILD. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO STILL PRESENT FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY LYNN CANAL THIS MORNING. NORTHERN LYNN IN
PARTICULAR LIKELY STILL HAS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ317.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ319.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ320>322-
324-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ323-326-327.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-643-644-662>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>034-036-053-641-642-651-
661-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
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