129
FXAK67 PAJK 040027
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
327 PM AKST TUE MAR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW FOR MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
THE INITIAL FRONT BRINGING US HEAVY PERIODS OF SNOW AND
RAIN TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS BAND NEAR THE
BC/ALASKA BORDER AROUND WHITE PASS AND HAINES PASS. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE ALSO MOVING
ACROSS YAKUTAT THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BAND WILL
STALL TO THE WEST OF YAKUTAT BAY BUT YAKUTAT COULD STILL SEE AROUND
6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE PARENT LOW
FOR THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST. WHILE
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT WITH A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE ICY BAY AREA AND THE MAIN LOW FEATURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE MAIN LOW WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT BRINGS A RETURN TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND RAIN FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
THE RAIN SNOW LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND KAKE AND PETERSBURG
THIS EVENING BUT MIGHT RETREAT CLOSER TO JUNEAU WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. IF THIS WARMER AIR DOES MIX IN AT JUNEAU,
IT WILL REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY. PLACES TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS RAIN.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DUO OF WAVES EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL WORK INTO THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
SNOW LEVELS. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. SNOW COULD LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGHWAYS, BUT
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL RIDE
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS STORM HAS A DEEPER PLUME OF WARM, MOIST AIR THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST AK, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE
RAIN, WARMING TEMPS AND RISING SNOW LEVELS, RUNOFF AND PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINING AREAS IS POSSIBLE. THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW
COULD ALSO LEAD TO RISES IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVER, ALTHOUGH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A STACKED LOW AND COLDER TEMPS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MULTIPLE WAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW
INTO SOUTHEAST AK. SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY THE COLDER MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO CHANGE RAIN BACK OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
A LOW CENTERED IN THE SE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE
OVER SE ALASKA THROUGH PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FROM SNOW FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF THE
PASI- PAWG LINE. FOR AREAS SOUTH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE RAIN SNOW LINE IS EXPECTED TO STAY ROUGHLY IN THE SAME PLACE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, WILL WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT
WHICH WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TYPES TO CHANGE BACK AND FORTH IN
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE PASI-PAWG LINE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY MORNING (AFTER 18Z) PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE PANHANDLE WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH A DRYING ALOFT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
OF WINTRY MIX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY, PAJN AND PAGS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE THIS. ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
MIXED IN WITH RAIN AND SNOW.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A LOW CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE
GULF THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING WINDS OUT OF THE CROSS SOUND AREA. AS
THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF WATERS, WINDS AROUND THE BACKSIDE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST. AFTER
THIS LOW WORKS INLAND, ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES WITH A RETURN OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH THOUGH AS THE WINDS DO DIMINISH DURING
THIS TIME.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND
FREDERICK SOUND. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR LYNN CANAL AS
WELL AS OUT OF TAKU INLET. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
HEADING INTO TOMORROW BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE
LOW IMPACTING THE AREA MOVES INLAND. SEAS DURING THIS TIME ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE OUTFLOW WINDS DECREASING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ317.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ318.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ320>322-
324-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ326-327.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-643-644-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>034-036-053-641-642-651-
652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BUTWIN
MARINE...SF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page