261
FXAK67 PAJK 041822 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
922 AM AKST WED MAR 4 2026
UPDATE.../FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK, WITH RAIN FOR
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AS AN ELONGATED LOW RACES E ACROSS THE AREA.
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM ANGOON NORTHWARD,
WHERE SNOW HAS SEEN SOME AREAS DIMINISH TO 1/2SM.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO BE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE LOW FINISHES
PUSHING INLAND. WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
TO QUICKLY MIX IN WITH RAIN AND SNOW. A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY SWITCHED OVER TO RAIN SEEING
A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW, AND VIS AND CIGS DIMINISHING DOWN
TOWARDS THE LOWER MVFR THRESHOLDS WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY
CROSSING BACK INTO IFR. AFTER THIS NEXT BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
(AND FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, RAIN), IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
TAKE HOLD BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
- SNOW FOR MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE LOW IN THE GULF START TO MOVE INLAND
ALONG THE OUTER COAST THIS MORNING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS MOVED
SLOWLY NORTH SINCE LAST EVENING FINALLY PASSING KAKE LATE LAST
EVENING. IT IS CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS FREDERICK SOUND AND
NORTHERN BARANOF ISLAND AS OF 4 AM. THIS IS EFFECTIVELY DIVIDING
THE PANHANDLE IN HALF WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF SEEING SOUTHERLY
WINDS, ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS, AND RAIN, WHILE THE NORTH STILL HAS
NORTHERLY WINDS, BELOW FREEZING TEMPS, AND SNOW.
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS A TIME OF TRANSITION. THE GULF LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO CANADA BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE SEVERAL EFFECTS ON THE FORECAST. FIRST,
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECTED PRECIP TO REMAIN PERSISTENT THOUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THOUGH THE SKAGWAY AREA WILL LIKELY HOLD ON
TO THE PRECIP INTO THE EVENING AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. FOR
THE NORTH THIS MEANS MORE SNOW WITH UPWARDS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
(LOCALLY MORE) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES REMAIN UP AND UNCHANGED FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ALSO
WHILE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS MADE SOME HEADWAY NORTH LAST NIGHT, A
COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO MOVE SOUTH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS AROUND SUMNER STRAIT BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN
EARLY THURSDAY.
SECOND, WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE CHANGING DIRECTION AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH FROM THE SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND FROM THE NORTH DOWN SKAGWAY AND LYNN CANAL. WINDS IN BOTH
AREAS WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.
ALONG THE OUTER COAST, INITIAL SE WINDS WILL TURN MORE W BY LATE
MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND. THOSE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AND THEN SHIFTING
BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE TONIGHT. SO OVERALL A VERY
DYNAMIC DAY WIND WISE.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DUO OF WAVES EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL WORK INTO THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
SNOW LEVELS. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. SNOW COULD LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGHWAYS, BUT
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL RIDE
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS STORM HAS A DEEPER PLUME OF WARM, MOIST AIR THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST AK, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE
RAIN, WARMING TEMPS AND RISING SNOW LEVELS, RUNOFF AND PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINING AREAS IS POSSIBLE. THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW
COULD ALSO LEAD TO RISES IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVER, ALTHOUGH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A STACKED LOW AND COLDER TEMPS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MULTIPLE WAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW
INTO SOUTHEAST AK. SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY THE COLDER MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO CHANGE RAIN BACK OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
AN ELONGATED LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AS OF THE TIME OF
WRITING WILL DEPART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, PRECIPITATION IS PREDOMINANTLY RAIN AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE LESSENED. HOWEVER NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND IN
THE INNER CHANNELS, SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO OCCASIONALLY CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS REDUCTIONS TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE LOW FINISHES PUSHING INLAND.
OVERALL CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWERED CIGS.
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH ONGOING SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND TO
QUICKLY MIX IN WITH RAIN AND SNOW. A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY SWITCHED OVER TO RAIN SEEING
A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW, AND VIS AND CIGS DIMINISHING DOWN
TOWARDS THE LOWER MVFR THRESHOLDS; WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY
CROSSING BACK INTO IFR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
A LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND IS MAKING ITS WAY
E AND INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. BEHIND IT
W WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO NEAR GALE FORCE
AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BEHIND THE LOW. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM AROUND CROSS SOUND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
OUTER COAST AND WILL MAINLY BE FROM ABOUT MID MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON. INTO TONIGHT WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF TO 20 KT OR
LESS AND WILL BE SWITCHING FROM A WESTERLY TO A SOUTHERLY BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. SEAS ARE AROUND
7 TO 10 FT (SW SWELL TO 8 FT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. PERIOD OF
AROUND 19 SEC) AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 FT IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS AND SWELL THEN SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEAS OF AROUND 6 TO 9 FT
PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
FROM FREDERICK SOUND NORTHWARD, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
PERSIST, BUT SIGNS ARE SHOWING OF THEM WEAKENING. LYNN CANAL AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 25 KT AS OF 5 AM
AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW DECLINE. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
DUE TO SNOW HERE AS WELL. SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, SOUTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL WITH 25 KT WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT AT THE MOMENT.
OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOWING A SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY WIND
BY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO THEN REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY INTO
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
LYNN CANAL (UP TO 10 FT) THIS MORNING FROM LINGERING SWELL FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS LAST NIGHT. THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS
DECREASE AND THEN FLIP TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY. OTHERWISE
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SEAS OF 4 FT OR LESS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ317.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ320>322-324-
325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641>643-661>663.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-036-644-651-652-664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAL
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