889
FXAK67 PAJK 050630 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
930 PM AKST WED MAR 4 2026
UPDATE
AFTER 06Z TAF UPDATE. VFR CONDITION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TO START. SHOULD SEE THAT THE CEILINGS LOWER CLOSE TO
3000 FEET OR DOWN TO 2000 FEET BY MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS INTO
TOWARDS MORNING AND INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS SNOW
LEADING TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET.
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO THE MORNING. THE RAIN SNOW
LINE THAT IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WILL BE STARTING TO SEE
THE RAIN LINE NORTHWARD TO BE ALONG ICY STRAIT.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 322 PM WED MAR 4
SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA HAS MOVED
INLAND AND WE ARE NOW SEEING THE ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TAKE HOLD. WINDS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST FOR MOST
STATIONS THAT ARE NOT SHELTERED FROM A WEST WIND. WITH THIS SURGE OF
WIND FROM THE WEST, TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN RISING ABOVE
FREEZING WITH THIS SURGE. MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS WARMER AIR HAVE
MANAGED TO JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER THIRTIES ALLOWING FOR A SWITCH
FROM SNOW TO RAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW
UP OFF THE COAST ON RADAR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN
SNOW OR SWITCH THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WE HAVE. AFTER THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, A STRONGER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ENTER THE AREA FOR
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG LOW IS
A PARTICULARLY STRONG JET ALOFT, EXCEEDING 130 KNOTS, SPREADING
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING PATTERN WILL SEE HEIGHT
FALLS AND PRESSURE DROPS IN THE YUKON, AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY WIND
REGIME IS IN ORDER FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS. RISING SNOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO MIX OUT ANY REMAINING COLD AIR,
TRANSITIONING AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO ALL RAIN.
GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, A SURGE OF COLDER AND MOIST
AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DROP SNOW LEVELS AND CONVERT PRECIPITATION
TYPE BACK OVER TO SNOW. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO SEE ALL SNOW
BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWING OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET DROP SOUTH, DRIVEN BY THE NORTHERLY, COLD WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW MORE COLD AIR TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, SNOW REMAINS IN THE FORECAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION IS
MODERATE TO HIGH, PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE TRANSITION TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND A SNOWIER REGIME BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS
HIGH. MAIN SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IS IN EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW,
WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO QPF TRENDS PARTICULARLY FOR THE
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
AVIATION..../THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE HELD ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE AK,
WITH AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE STILL
LURCHING INTO IFR TERRITORY ON OCCASION, THOUGH AREAS WITHOUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVE SEEN CIGS AND VIS IMPROVE INTO VFR. WHILE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, CHANCES OF SNOW BEGIN RAMPING UP AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, EXPECT AN
INITIAL BURST OF SNOW FOR AREAS FROM WRANGELL NORTHWARD, WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS WARM AIR ADVANCES BACK NORTHWARD. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MVFR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AS HEAVIER POCKETS OF
PRECIP MOVE THROUGH. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR TO BE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN, AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AS A RESULT, AS CIGS AND VIS SOMEWHAT IMPROVE.
MARINE...OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
FOR THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS. SOME POCKETS OF NEAR GALES ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE ICY BAY AND
CAPE SUCKLING AREAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW BUT COULD SEE A SLIGHT TICK UPWARD AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UP THOUGH
WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ARE FOR FRIDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. GALES CONTINUE FOR
CROSS SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WESTERLY SURGE CONTINUES TO PUSH
INLAND. THIS SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES FOR MOST
PLACES BUT SOME POCKETS OF NEAR GALES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3-6
FT FOR THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE INNER
CHANNELS BY FRIDAY AS WE SEE A GALE FORCE SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...SF
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