464
FXAK67 PAJK 051822 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
922 AM AKST THU MAR 5 2026
UPDATE
/UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE/...
SNOW HAS PROVEN HEAVIER THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF SE AK, DRIVEN BY A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE OUT FOR MUCH OF THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SNOW WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR, THOUGH IT MAY LINGER LONGER IN THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
SYNOPSIS
- WEAKER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING SNOW
TO THE NORTHER HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND RAIN FOR THE SOUTH.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ A WEAKER FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA. RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS DRIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BEING DRAPED OVER KUPREANOF ISLAND
AND NORTHERN BARANOF AS OF 4 AM. HOWEVER, SEA LEVEL TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED ACROSS THE NORTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
WITH MANY AREAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AS FAR NORTH AS
SKAGWAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS TEMPERATURE TREND IS HAINES
AND THE CHILKAT VALLEY WHERE NW WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
IN THE TEENS OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FROM W
TO E BRINGING MORE PRECIP BUT ALSO A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUSH
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL VARIOUS AREAS GET BEFORE THEY BECOME TOO WARM AT
LOW LEVELS TO ACCUMULATE MUCH OF THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL OR JUST
TURNS THE PRECIP TO RAIN. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE JUNEAU AREA
LIKELY RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM A COMBO OF THEM
BEING OVERALL COOLER, AND MORE QPF EXPECTED THERE. STILL ONLY
EXPECT AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES (4 AT MOST) FROM THIS SYSTEM BEFORE
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO TURN THE SNOW TO RAIN. BY THURSDAY
EVENING MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS SHOULD HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
30S AT LEAST WITH PRECIP TYPE LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN. HAINES,
SKAGWAY, AND THE HIGHWAYS WILL LIKELY BE THE EXCEPTION, STAYING
SNOW UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY SOUTHERLY OR WESTERLY FOR MOST AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING IN CLARENCE STRAIT (25 KT
SOUTHERLIES). NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FROM WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS EXPECT FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
AS VARIOUS LOCALIZED FEATURES MOVE THROUGH.
LONG TERM
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG LOW IS
A PARTICULARLY STRONG JET ALOFT, EXCEEDING 130 KNOTS, SPREADING
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING PATTERN WILL SEE HEIGHT
FALLS AND PRESSURE DROPS IN THE YUKON, AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY WIND
REGIME IS IN ORDER FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS. RISING SNOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO MIX OUT ANY REMAINING COLD AIR,
TRANSITIONING AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO ALL RAIN.
GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, A SURGE OF COLDER AND MOIST
AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DROP SNOW LEVELS AND CONVERT PRECIPITATION
TYPE BACK OVER TO SNOW. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO SEE ALL SNOW
BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWING OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET DROP SOUTH, DRIVEN BY THE NORTHERLY, COLD WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW MORE COLD AIR TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, SNOW REMAINS IN THE FORECAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION IS
MODERATE TO HIGH, PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE TRANSITION TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND A SNOWIER REGIME BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS
HIGH. MAIN SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IS IN EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW,
WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO QPF TRENDS PARTICULARLY FOR THE
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PRECIPITATION AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY
OF SITES THURSDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST
BELOW THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NORTH AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SHOWERS INTO THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENTLY SEEING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS FOR ALL SITES TO THE SOUTH, WET AND HEAVY
SNOW REDUCING VIS TO 1 TO 2 SM ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND
MORE DRY, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH BETWEEN 2 TO 4 SM
OF VIS AND OVC CIGS AOB 3000 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW SCUD
AROUND 700 FT. A STRONGER, MORE ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, REACHING
THE OUTER COAST AROUND 15Z AND MOVING INLAND BY 18Z. THIS WILL
BRING VIS AND CIGS DOWN TO A MORE CONSISTENT MVFR, WITH PERIODS OF
IFR POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
NOT A LOT OF WIND IN THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST BEING
AN AREA OF 25 KT SW WINDS S OF 57N. THERE IS A TROUGH AXIS PLANTED
E TO W ACROSS THE GULF AT AROUND 57N LATITUDE WHERE WINDS NORTH OF
IT ARE OUT OF THE E WHILE WINDS SOUTH ARE OUT OF THE SW. THAT
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY EVENTUALLY
LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF WITH S TO SW WINDS LEADING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF ON
FRIDAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF INCREASING
TO GALE FORCE BY MID DAY FRIDAY. SEAS RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 FT WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTH. PRIMARY SWELL IS FROM THE W WITH
A HEIGHT OF 5 TO 7 FT AND PERIOD OF 10 SEC. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CHANGE IN SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS EITHER. THAT CHANGES INTO
FRIDAY AS SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 FT RANGE DUE TO
THE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NEXT INCOMING FRONT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
THE INNER CHANNELS ARE MOSTLY QUIET WITH 20 KT OR LESS OF WIND
MAINLY FROM A S AND W DIRECTION. CLARENCE STRAIT HAS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT FROM FRONTAL WINDS THAT WILL MAINLY BE THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST WINDS
OF 20 KT OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THEY START INCREASING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THEN
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. SEAS LARGELY 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES EXPOSED TO
THE WEST DUE TO SOME SWELL GETTING INTO THOSE AREAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ319.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ320-325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-641-642-644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL
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