323
FXAK67 PAJK 060038
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY CHANGING NORTHERN
SNOWS TO RAIN. A SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
FOR FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING / UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA AS PERSIST
FEATURE WILL MEAN THAT THE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE MID-
CENTRAL PACIFIC, ACROSS THE GULF AND THOUGH THE PANHANDLE AREA TO
WESTERN CANADA. SYSTEMS BEING STEERED AND SUPPORTED IN THIS FLOW
BY 150 TO 180 KT JET CORES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SURFACE FEATURES FOR THE GULF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START
OF THE WEEKEND IS A MODERATE STRONG 970 MB LOW DEVELOPING AS IT
MOVE NE TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING THE TO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS RESULT THE WARM MOIST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND PUSH
WARMING PAST THE JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS REGION AND LIKELY TO HAINES
AND SKAGWAY BY FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE POOL OF COLD THAT BEING WRAPPED INTO
THE WEST SIDE OF DEEP LOW THAT SORT VERTICALLY STACKS NEAR THE PWS
AND NORTHEAST GULF/YUKON TERRITORY REGION. COLD AIRS SHOULD BE
MOVING OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN EVENTUALLY
TO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOVEMENT AND
POSITIONING OF THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK WITH RAIN TO
END THE WORK WEEK, AND A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BY LATE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH EAST INTO THE GULF BRINGING SUSTAINED STRONG
GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF WITH A CHANCE FOR AREAS OF STORM
FORCE WINDS. AS THIS LOW PUSHES INLAND, WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WILL INCREASE WITH A 40 TO 60% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND AROUND A 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
REACHING 55 MPH. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND, AND ANNETTE ISLAND.
A PATTERN CHANGE THEN OCCURS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH CONTINUED NW
FLOW. IN TURN THIS WILL DECREASE SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE WITH THESE COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH, NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEN
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID
WEEK.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE PANHANDLE, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE SEEING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND WINDS AOB 10 KTS. THE ONLY SITES STILL SEEING
CONSISTENT SNOW ARE PAYA, PAGY, AND PAHN, WHICH IS BRINGING
CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR TO LIFR WITH VIS AOB 1 SM AND LOWERED CIGS
AOB 500 FT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY
ALREADY SEEING AROUND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PAGS IS STILL TRYING
TO MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW, THOUGH PAJN HAS FULLY TRANSITIONED
OVER TO RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LIFTED CIGS SO THIS SHOULD GIVE OVER TO
RAIN SOON. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE IS SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, OVERCAST CIGS AOB 3000 FT, AND AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH GENERALLY
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 SM OF VIS AND OVC CIGS AOB
3000 FT WITH MOST SITES SEEING LOW SCUD AROUND 800 FT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT TO HAVE BETTER VIS AND
AREAS OF HIGHER CIGS BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN PRECEDING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS. A STRONG GALE FORCE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
REACHING THE OUTER COAST AROUND 12 TO 15Z AND MOVING INLAND BY
18Z. THIS WILL BRING VIS AND CIGS DOWN TO A MORE CONSISTENT MVFR,
WITH PERIODS OF IFR AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FOR A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS JUST
STARTING TO MAKE IT INTO THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. LLWS WILL ALSO
FOLLOW THIS FRONT, WITH OUTER COASTAL SITES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
SEE 30 TO 40 KTS OF SHEAR PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORHTWEST GUFL MOVING FROM KODIAK
ISLAND PAST THE KENIA PENINSULA, AND THEN TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP TO
GALE TO STORM STRENGTH ON SATURDAY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
SEAS RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTH.
PRIMARY SWELL IS FROM THE W WITH A HEIGHT OF 5 TO 7 FT AND PERIOD
OF 10 SEC. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS EITHER. THAT CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AS SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE
INTO THE 10 TO 20 FT RANGE DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
NEXT INCOMING FRONT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE INNER
CHANNELS THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY START INCREASING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THEN NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS MAY INCREASE UPTO
GALE FORCE THORUGH LYNN CANAL FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS LARGELY 4 FT OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES EXPOSED TO THE WEST DUE TO SOME SWELL GETTING INTO THOSE
AREAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ319.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-644-651-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>036-053-641>643-661-
662.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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