503
FXAK67 PAJK 060715 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1015 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2026
EVENING FORECAST AND AVIATION UPDATE
MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING, MAINLY TO WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAINES AND SKAGWAY. EARLIER THIS EVENING,
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAINES OUT A FEW EXTRA
HOURS FOR LINGERS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES,
BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DEPARTED WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING, THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRED AROUND 9PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, NEXT SYSTEM UP PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK TO
THE PANHANDLE. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
RAIN AT SEA LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPTION BEING SNOWFALL ALONG
THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FRO THE KLONDIKE
STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION
/THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AOB
GENERALLY AOB 2500FT AND VISBYS 1SM TO 5SM. NOT ANTICIPATING
IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT, PREDOMINATE MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE UNDER ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF BREAKS INTO LOW-
END VFR TERRITORY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN DETERIORATED THROUGH
FRIDAY AS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST BY 15Z, PUSHING EASTWARD
TOWARD JUNEAU BY 20 TO 22Z. ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, UP TO 25KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND BY 00Z. SE-LY LLWS AROUND 30KTS
APPROACHES THE COAST BY 16 TO 18Z, TURNING SW-LY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR YAKUTAT, JUNEAU, SITKA, KLAWOCK, AND KETCHIKAN.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 338 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY CHANGING NORTHERN
SNOWS TO RAIN. A SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
FOR FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING /
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN
CANADA AS PERSIST FEATURE WILL MEAN THAT THE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM THE MID- CENTRAL PACIFIC, ACROSS THE GULF AND THOUGH THE
PANHANDLE AREA TO WESTERN CANADA. SYSTEMS BEING STEERED AND
SUPPORTED IN THIS FLOW BY 150 TO 180 KT JET CORES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE FEATURES FOR THE GULF FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND IS A MODERATE STRONG 970 MB LOW
DEVELOPING AS IT MOVE NE TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING THE
TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS RESULT
THE WARM MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND PUSH WARMING PAST THE JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS REGION AND
LIKELY TO HAINES AND SKAGWAY BY FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE POOL OF COLD THAT BEING WRAPPED
INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEEP LOW THAT SORT VERTICALLY STACKS NEAR
THE PWS AND NORTHEAST GULF/YUKON TERRITORY REGION. COLD AIRS
SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
EVENTUALLY TO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MOVEMENT AND POSITIONING OF THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE A KEY
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK WITH RAIN TO END THE
WORK WEEK, AND A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BY LATE WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES NORTH EAST INTO THE GULF BRINGING SUSTAINED STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF WITH A CHANCE FOR AREAS OF STORM FORCE
WINDS. AS THIS LOW PUSHES INLAND, WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WILL INCREASE WITH A 40 TO 60% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND AROUND A 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
REACHING 55 MPH. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND, AND ANNETTE
ISLAND.
A PATTERN CHANGE THEN OCCURS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH CONTINUED NW
FLOW. IN TURN THIS WILL DECREASE SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA RETURNING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION AND SNOW THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE WITH THESE
COLDER TEMPERATURES.
ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH, NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE TRANSITION
FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEN NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVING FROM KODIAK
ISLAND PAST THE KENAI PENINSULA, AND THEN TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP TO
GALE TO STORM STRENGTH ON SATURDAY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
SEAS RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTH.
PRIMARY SWELL IS FROM THE W WITH A HEIGHT OF 5 TO 7 FT AND PERIOD
OF 10 SEC. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS EITHER. THAT CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AS SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE
INTO THE 10 TO 20 FT RANGE DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
NEXT INCOMING FRONT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE
INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY START INCREASING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THEN NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS MAY INCREASE
UP TO GALE FORCE THROUGH LYNN CANAL FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS LARGELY 4
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER SEAS NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES EXPOSED TO THE WEST DUE TO SOME SWELL GETTING INTO
THOSE AREAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-644-651-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>036-053-641>643-661-
662.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...BEZENEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page