068
FXAK67 PAJK 061336
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
436 AM AKST FRI MAR 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
- WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SYSTEM
BRINGS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR FRIDAY, WET SNOW FOR THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.
- COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD GALES TO GULF
WATERS SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
ENERGY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ALSO CONTINUING TO PULL MOISTURE FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON TAP FRIDAY AS WELL AS SNOW FOR UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY FROM AN APPROACHING GALE FORCE
FRONT. THE SOURCE OF THIS GALE FORCE FRONT IS A DEVELOPING 970 MB
LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. WINDS IN THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR SKAGWAY, WIND GUSTS
REACHING UPWARDS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 40S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AT SEA LEVEL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE RISING THROUGH THE DAY REACHING UPWARDS
OF 7500 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRIEFLY AROUND 4000 FT
ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. COOLER AIR WILL THEN WRAP AROUND
FROM THE WEST, WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY DROPPING HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MANY AREAS THAT SAW ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE WEEK WILL NOW BE
FACING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
CLOGGED WITH SNOW AND ICE. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANOTHER IMPACTFUL FAST
MOVING SYSTEM SATURDAY, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK WITH RAIN TO
END THE WORK WEEK, AND A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BY LATE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH EAST INTO THE GULF BRINGING SUSTAINED STRONG
GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF WITH A CHANCE FOR AREAS OF STORM
FORCE WINDS. AS THIS LOW PUSHES INLAND, WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WILL INCREASE WITH A 40 TO 60% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND AROUND A 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
REACHING 55 MPH. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND, AND ANNETTE ISLAND.
A PATTERN CHANGE THEN OCCURS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH CONTINUED NW
FLOW. IN TURN THIS WILL DECREASE SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RETURNING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE WITH THESE COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH, NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEN
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID
WEEK.
AVIATION
VERY ACTIVE DAY FOR FLYING WEATHER TODAY AS A WET AND
WINDY FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS IN
THE PANHANDLE ARE ALREADY SEEING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS (AND
OCCATIONALLY MVFR VISIBILTY) THIS MORNING AND THE FRONT HAS NOT
MADE IT INTO THE PANHANDLE YET AS OF 4 AM (THOUGH IT IS JUST
OFFSHORE). EXPECT VISIBILTY AND CEILINGS TO SHOW MORE FREQUENT
IFR, BUT MOSTLY MVFR, CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN
LATER THIS MORNING AFTER 14Z AND IT WILL LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL MAINLY BE RAIN FOR SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL VARY WILDLY WITH IT BEING NEAR SEA LEVEL THIS MORNING
AROUND HAINES AND SKAGWAY TO NEARLY 7000 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT SEA
LEVEL). IN ADDITION, HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STRONG RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL. IT WILL
START OUT AS MAINLY SPEED SHEAR (35 KT SE WINDS AT 2000 FT ASL),
BUT WILL START TO SHOW MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AFTER 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS START TO SWITCH TO A MORE SW
DIRECTION WHILE SEA LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MORE SE OR S. TURBULENCE
MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AS WELL. INTO
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THOUGH THE AREA AND AT LEAST
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND (EXCEPT NEAR SKAGWAY) WITH
VISIBILTY CLIMBING BACK TO VFR. CEILINGS HOWEVER MAY STILL LINGER
AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF INCREASING TO GALE
FORCE BY MID DAY FRIDAY. SEAS RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 FT WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTH. PRIMARY SWELL IS FROM THE SSW WITH A
HEIGHT OF 4 TO 6 FT AND PERIOD OF 9 SEC. SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE
INTO THE 10 TO 20 FT RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NEXT INCOMING FRONT. HIGHEST SEAS
EXPECTED WEST OF 140W.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
THE INNER CHANNELS ARE MOSTLY QUIET WITH 20 KT OR LESS OF WIND
MAINLY FROM A S AND W DIRECTION. WINDS START INCREASING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. SHIFTING OF
EASTERLY WINDS TO WESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ICY STRAIT AND
CROSS SOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS LARGELY 5 FT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES EXPOSED TO THE WEST DUE TO SOME SWELL GETTING INTO THOSE
AREAS AS WELL AS SEAS REACHING UP TO 8 FT ALONG LYNN CANAL DUE TO
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ318.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-644-651-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>036-053-641>643-661-
662.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...STJ
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