845
FXAK67 PAJK 070631
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
931 PM AKST FRI MAR 6 2026
UPDATE
EVENING UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREVIOUS
FORECAST BELOW.
AVIATION
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS OVER SE AK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE NE REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE AK BY MID MORNING (~18Z).
THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING STEADIER RAIN AND
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO AREAS S PASI-PAWG
LINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BY EVENING HOURS RAIN WILL BECOME
MORE SHOWERY WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CEILINGS, HOWEVER, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH (~03Z).
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. AS
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO DECREASE BELOW
3SM. ONCE THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA (STARTING
AROUND 03Z) SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS.
HOWEVER, WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z, PARTICULARLY FOR THE AREAS SW OF
PAYA-PAGS LINE.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
0400PM FRIDAY MARCH 6, 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
- A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SATURDAY BRINGING IMPACTFUL WINDS TO THE
OUTER COAST AND INTO THE CHANNELS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, AIDING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH
SATURDAY SYSTEM
SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM WERE FOCUSED
ON THE FAST MOVING LOW JUMPING INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS IT MOVES INTO COASTAL WATERS
OFFSHORE FROM CAPE SPENCER. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE EXACTLY
THIS LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL, WHICH MAY GREATLY IMPACT WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE. CURRENTLY EXPECTING WESTERN CHICHAGOF
ISLAND AND WESTERN BARANOF ISLAND TO SUSTAIN THE BRUNT OF THE
WINDS, WITH STRONG GUSTS FILTERING INTO CROSS SOUND AND UP
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND SUMNER STRAIT.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL RATES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER AREAS. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE
COAST, IT WILL BRING A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO TAKE OVER WITH
THIS FRONT, THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH
THE FRONTAL BAND AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WITHIN A
FEW HOURS. BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF
COMMUNITIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE YAKUTAT AND JUNEAU ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE CLOSER TO 4 TO 6 INCHES. THIS WILL SET IN FOR
YAKUTAT AS THE FRONT INITIALLY MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AROUND MIDDAY, WHILE JUNEAU WILL SEE THE
HEAVIER RATES CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM...
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SNOW
SHOWERS, DRIVEN FROM ONSHORE FLOW, COLD AIR ALOFT, AND DEEP
INSTABILITY (RELATIVE TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA STANDARDS). THESE
FACTORS WILL CREATE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR THESE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS TO THRIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK HITTING 1
TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. SIMPLY PUT, EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY; HIGHEST
POTENTIAL ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAST, WITH IMPACTS
DIRECTLY TIED TO SNOW SHOWER MOVEMENT. AREAS EXPOSED TO WESTERLY
FLOW COULD SEE TRAINING SNOW SHOWERS, RESULTING IN HEAVY LOCALIZED
SNOWFALL. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY,
OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN ACROSS HAINES AND SKAGWAY, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY IN LYNN
CANAL BY WEDNESDAY AND SNOW COMING TO AN END FOR THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR.
AVIATION.../ THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON / RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES THROUGH CEILINGS
OF 1500 TO 3000 FEET. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITIES FOR KLAWOCK,
PETERSBURG, YAKUTAT, AND SITKA WITH 1 TO 2 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG
RESTRICTIONS. WITH THE CANAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OPENING UP, A
STRONG SOUTHERN WIND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
REGION, MEANING STRONG SOUTH WINDS AT SKAGWAY AND AN EASTERLY WIND
IMPACTING HAINES. WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WITH THE WINDS THIS
EVENING.
A STRONG SECOND WRAP FEATURE ABOUT THE LOW APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE
SATURDAY, WILL HAVE VERY GUSTY WESTERLY BAND FOR THE COASTAL AREA
DURING THE DAY, SO WIND SHEAR FOR SITKA, AND KLAWOCK FROM MORNING TO
EVENING ARE POSSIBLE THERE WELL. ANTICIPATE TURBULENCE NEAR TERRAIN
AND THE WIND FLOWING OVER AND AROUND.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): GALE FORCE GULF WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GALE
FORCE TO STORM FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 25 TO 30 FT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND 15 TO 20 FT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS. THESE
WILL PICK BACK UP TO 20 TO 25 FT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF MIDDAY
SATURDAY, PUSHING ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BARANOF
ISLAND TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THE
NORTHERN GULF CAN EXPECT HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 18 FT DURING THIS TIME.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN
THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN MIDDAY SATURDAY. LYNN CANAL IS
SEEING GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG BREEZES TO GALE FORCE WINDS UP
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH CROSS
SOUND AND INTO ICY STRAIT. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FT ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS, WITH CHANNEL ENTRANCES ALONG THE
GULF POTENTIALLY SEEING 12 TO 20 FT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR AKZ320-321-327-328.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ322-323.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR AKZ324-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM AKST SUNDAY
FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ642-643-663-664.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-031-033>036-053-641-651-652-661-662-
671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-032-644.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...NM
AVIATION...BUTWIN
MARINE...ZTK
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