935
FXAK67 PAJK 071440
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
540 AM AKST SAT MAR 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
- A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SATURDAY BRINGING IMPACTFUL WINDS TO THE
OUTER COAST AND INTO THE CHANNELS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, AIDING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH
SATURDAY SYSTEM
SHORT TERM
THE MAIN DRIVER OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND IS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND SUBSEQUENT
ARCTIC TROUGH OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE BERING. THIS
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FAST MOVING WAVE THAT IS ADVANCING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE GULF BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING GALE
TO STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TO COASTAL WATERS AND STRONG WINDS TO
MOST OUTER COASTAL COMMUNITIES. A HIGH WIND WARNING AND MULTIPLE
WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT LATER TODAY FOR WHEN THIS SYSTEM
JUMPS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE
BACKSIDE AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN COAST AROUND YAKUTAT, THEREFORE A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO AROUND 50 MPH.
WHILE THE FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING IT TO
PRIMARILY BE A WIND THREAT AS OPPOSED TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW
THREAT, YAKUTAT HAS COOLED DOWN ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO BEGIN AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY, WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED
TO FALL THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40, BUT WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX AND THEN SNOW AS COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE RUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND -3 CELSIUS BEFORE FALLING TO NEGATIVE
10 OR LESS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ONSHORE FLOW WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AFTER THE LOW
PUNCHES INLAND. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE SNOW SHOWERS, DRIVEN FROM ONSHORE FLOW, COLD AIR
ALOFT, AND DEEP INSTABILITY (RELATIVE TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA
STANDARDS). THESE FACTORS WILL CREATE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR THESE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO THRIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE QUICK HITTING 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. SIMPLY PUT,
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO LATE
TUESDAY; HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAST,
WITH IMPACTS DIRECTLY TIED TO SNOW SHOWER MOVEMENT. AREAS EXPOSED
TO WESTERLY FLOW COULD SEE TRAINING SNOW SHOWERS, RESULTING IN
HEAVY LOCALIZED SNOWFALL. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY, OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN ACROSS HAINES AND SKAGWAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
LIKELY IN LYNN CANAL BY WEDNESDAY AND SNOW COMING TO AN END FOR
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
AVIATION.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN AND CIGS 2-4KFT. A STRONG LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. VIS/CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO
IFR UNDER HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW. BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT, SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE SHOWERS WITH IMPROVING VIS/CIGS, BUT IFR CONDITIONS STILL
POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS THE CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
03Z, PARTICULARLY FOR THE AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST.
WINDS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SE AK WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THE
LOW/FRONT PASSAGE TODAY, 15-25G25-40KT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WINDS BECOME 10-18G20-28KT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TURBULENCE AND LLWS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW/FRONTAL PASSAGE
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL PICK BACK UP TO 20 TO 25 FT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF MIDDAY SATURDAY, PUSHING ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND. THE NORTHERN GULF CAN EXPECT HEIGHTS OF 13 TO 20 FT
DURING THIS TIME.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN
THE INNER CHANNELS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN MIDDAY SATURDAY. LYNN CANAL IS STILL GUSTING TO
GALE FORCE IN THE VICINITY OF ELDRED ROCK BUT IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG BREEZES TO GALE FORCE WINDS UP
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH
CROSS SOUND AND INTO ICY STRAIT. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FT ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS, WITH CHANNEL ENTRANCES
ALONG THE GULF POTENTIALLY SEEING 12 TO 20 FT AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
FOR AKZ320-321-327-328.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FOR AKZ322-323.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
FOR AKZ324-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM AKST
SUNDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-643-644-663-664.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>036-053-641-642-651-652-661-
662-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AP/NM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...STJ
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