724
FXAK67 PAJK 080044
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
344 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SATURDAY BRINGING IMPACTFUL WINDS TO THE
OUTER COAST AND INTO THE CHANNELS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, AIDING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH
SATURDAY SYSTEM AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
A STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE LOW IS CURRENTLY
JUMPING INLAND JUST NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
IMPACTFUL WINDS AND SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT HAS JUST DONE A BROAD BRUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE,
BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND LOWERED
VISIBILITY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE VERY QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT, AND IS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A MAJORITY OF COMMUNITIES
WITH THESE STRONG GUSTS, AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR OUTER COASTAL LOCATIONS AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR INCLUDING JUNEAU. REPORTS HAVE COME IN DURING THE RECENT
ONSET FOR SUDDEN STRONG WIND GUSTS BRINGING DOWN TREES AND HEAVY,
WET SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRASTICALLY DECREASE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO BELOW FREEZING, CAUSING A VERY QUICK
SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. DUE TO THE
FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT, A MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT, WINDS AND PRECIPITATION RATES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT SNOWFALL RATES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT.
LONG TERM
SIMPLY PUT:
-CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK, HEAVY AT TIMES, CREATING
A COMPLEX SNOW FORECAST.
-OUTFLOW BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF GALE
FORCE THURSDAY.
MONDAY TWO REGIMES WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE STATE OF ALASKA AND
GULF: THE FIRST IS A PROMINENT RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING SEA, THE
SECOND A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ALCAN BORDER STRETCHING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE AND
INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST IN THE COMING WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TOUCHING ON THE PROMINENT RIDGE FIRST, STOUT NORTHERLY
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE’S AXIS WILL HELP REINFORCE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 850MB, TRANSLATING TO RELATIVELY DEEP INSTABILITY AS
COLD AIR MOVES EAST ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. THIS WILL
SERVE AS THE CATALYST FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF THEM
HEAVY AT TIMES. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY CREATING A COMPLEX SNOW FORECAST, A SURFACE
HIGH STRENGTHENS IN THE ARCTIC, WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. AS THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD, ALLOWING OUTFLOW TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THIS COLD AND DRY
ARCTIC AIR WILL HELP SHUNT SNOW FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK
SLOWLY, WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AS GALE FORCE OUTFLOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY. FRIDAY
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY; HOWEVER, WINTER WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEAST AS A CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST
OF HAWAII LIFTS INTO THE GULF BRINGING MOISTURE WITH IT, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z MONDAY/
WITH THE STORM FORCE FRONTAL
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WINDS TO BE QUITE STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH. OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL BEGIN THEIR DIMINISHING TREND BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW &
RAIN WITH APPRECIABLE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES & PUSHES THROUGH. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL CHANCES ARE FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BEHIND
THE FRONT, SHOWERS THAT WILL GIVE HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING MAINLY
SNOW. CIG & VIS CONDITIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE VFR & IFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH & PUSH THROUGH,
AFTER WHICH SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOMINATE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT ON AVERAGE,
BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THOSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL PERIODICALLY MAKE
CONDITIONS QUITE LOW. LLWS PRIMARILY CENTERED ALOFT AT UP TO
AROUND 2 KFT WITH MAGNITUDES UP TO AROUND BETWEEN 30 & 50 KT ARE
ANTICIPATED AROUND & OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
& EVENING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A GALE TO STORM FORCE FRONT IS
IS MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO THE COAST OF CHICHAGOF AND BARANOF ISLANDS, FOLLOWING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CENTER. WINDS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH WESTERLY STRONG BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING
NATURE OF THIS FRONT, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF 20 TO 30 FT WAVES IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, EXTENDING FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER DOWN TO
DIXON ENTRANCE. THESE WILL DROP TO ABOUT 15 TO 18 FT GOING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND STEADILY DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF CAN EXPECT A MORE CONSISTENT 12 TO 16 FT SATURDAY
AND DROPPING TO 10 TO 13 FT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO UP TO 25 WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH WILL DROP
BACK DOWN TO A MORE CONSISTENT 10 TO 15 FT AT A PERIOD OF ABOUT
12 SECONDS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THE GALE TO STORM FORCE FRONT MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST OF CHICHAGOF AND BARANOF ISLAND IS
EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS INTO CROSS SOUND
AND PARTIALLY DOWN ICY STRAIT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS CAN EXPECT TO SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS FRONT, WITH THE STRONGEST
AREAS BEING IN THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES, NEAR FIVE FINGER
LIGHTHOUSE, AROUND POINT COUVERDEN, AND UP LYNN CANAL. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TO STRONG BREEZES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND THEN STEADILY DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE QUICK SWITCH TO WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
GALES AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS OUTFLOW WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE. GENERAL WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE CHANNELS, WITH AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS SEEING CLOSER
TO 7 TO 9 FT. CHANNEL ENTRANCES MAY SEE HEIGHTS UP TO 25 FT
PUSHING IN WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS WILL DROP TO 1 TO 3 FEET INTO
SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ320-321-327-328.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ322-323.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
FOR AKZ324-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM AKST
SUNDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-643-644-663-664.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>036-053-641-642-651-652-661-
662-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
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