182
FXAK67 PAJK 080610 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
910 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2026
EVENING AND AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
THE STRONG LOW PREVIOUSLY IN THE GULF HAS SUCCESSFULLY MOVED
INLAND AND DIMINISHED INTO AN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE COLLAPSING, WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
DRASTICALLY, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR FALLING
BELOW 40 MPH GUSTS. THEREFORE, CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, INCLUDING JUNEAU, ANGOON,
SITKA, PETERSBURG, KAKE, WRANGELL, PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, YAKUTAT
KETCHIKAN, PELICAN, AND ELFIN COVE. DOWNGRADED GUSTAVUS TO A WIND
ADVISORY DUE TO ONGOING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT EXPECTING TO
EXPIRE THIS ON TIME. ADDITIONALLY, REPLACED MOST OF THE GALE
WARNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, AS WIND SPEEDS IN THE OUTER
COAST AND INNER CHANNELS HAVE NOT MAINTAINED GALE CRITERIA. NOW
THE MAIN THREAT MOVES TOWARD WINTER WEATHER, WITH ONGOING SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. SEVERAL WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM PELICAN TO JUNEAU; HOWEVER, WITH
THE WIND DIMINISHING, LOOKING TO SEE INCREASING VISIBILITIES AND
LESS BLOWING SNOW.
AVIATION
/THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS POTENT LOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
TO PUSH INLAND, CURRENTLY AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE S YUKON. ATTENDANT
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND AS A RESULT, CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED 5 TO 15 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. PER USUAL, ANTICIPATING SKAGWAY TO HOLD ONTO
STRONGER WINDS A BIT LONGER THAN THE REST OF THE TAF SITES,
SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. LINGERING MARGINAL LLWS THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY MORNING, WITH NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LLWS
THREATS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS AOA 4000FT AND
GREATER THAN 6 STATUE MILES OF VISIBILITY, INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BRING SHORT PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR VISBYS WITH MVFR
CIGS AS THEY PASS THROUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 344 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SATURDAY BRINGING IMPACTFUL WINDS TO THE
OUTER COAST AND INTO THE CHANNELS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, AIDING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH
SATURDAY SYSTEM AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM...A STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE LOW IS CURRENTLY
JUMPING INLAND JUST NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
IMPACTFUL WINDS AND SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT HAS JUST DONE A BROAD BRUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE,
BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND LOWERED
VISIBILITY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE VERY QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT, AND IS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A MAJORITY OF COMMUNITIES
WITH THESE STRONG GUSTS, AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR OUTER COASTAL LOCATIONS AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR INCLUDING JUNEAU. REPORTS HAVE COME IN DURING THE RECENT
ONSET FOR SUDDEN STRONG WIND GUSTS BRINGING DOWN TREES AND HEAVY,
WET SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRASTICALLY DECREASE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO BELOW FREEZING, CAUSING A VERY QUICK
SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. DUE TO THE
FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT, A MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT, WINDS AND PRECIPITATION RATES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT SNOWFALL RATES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT.
LONG TERM...
SIMPLY PUT:
-CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK, HEAVY AT TIMES, CREATING
A COMPLEX SNOW FORECAST.
-OUTFLOW BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF GALE
FORCE THURSDAY.
MONDAY TWO REGIMES WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE STATE OF ALASKA AND
GULF: THE FIRST IS A PROMINENT RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING SEA, THE
SECOND A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ALCAN BORDER STRETCHING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE AND
INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST IN THE COMING WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TOUCHING ON THE PROMINENT RIDGE FIRST, STOUT NORTHERLY
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE’S AXIS WILL HELP REINFORCE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 850MB, TRANSLATING TO RELATIVELY DEEP INSTABILITY AS
COLD AIR MOVES EAST ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. THIS WILL
SERVE AS THE CATALYST FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF THEM
HEAVY AT TIMES. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY CREATING A COMPLEX SNOW FORECAST, A SURFACE
HIGH STRENGTHENS IN THE ARCTIC, WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. AS THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD, ALLOWING OUTFLOW TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THIS COLD AND DRY
ARCTIC AIR WILL HELP SHUNT SNOW FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK
SLOWLY, WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AS GALE FORCE OUTFLOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY. FRIDAY
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY; HOWEVER, WINTER WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEAST AS A CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST
OF HAWAII LIFTS INTO THE GULF BRINGING MOISTURE WITH IT, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A GALE TO STORM FORCE FRONT IS
IS MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO THE COAST OF CHICHAGOF AND BARANOF ISLANDS, FOLLOWING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CENTER. WINDS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH WESTERLY STRONG BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING
NATURE OF THIS FRONT, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF 20 TO 30 FT WAVES IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, EXTENDING FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER DOWN TO
DIXON ENTRANCE. THESE WILL DROP TO ABOUT 15 TO 18 FT GOING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND STEADILY DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF CAN EXPECT A MORE CONSISTENT 12 TO 16 FT SATURDAY
AND DROPPING TO 10 TO 13 FT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO UP TO 25 WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH WILL DROP
BACK DOWN TO A MORE CONSISTENT 10 TO 15 FT AT A PERIOD OF ABOUT
12 SECONDS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THE GALE TO STORM FORCE FRONT MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST OF CHICHAGOF AND BARANOF ISLAND IS
EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS INTO CROSS SOUND
AND PARTIALLY DOWN ICY STRAIT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS CAN EXPECT TO SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS FRONT, WITH THE STRONGEST
AREAS BEING IN THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES, NEAR FIVE FINGER
LIGHTHOUSE, AROUND POINT COUVERDEN, AND UP LYNN CANAL. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TO STRONG BREEZES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND THEN STEADILY DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE QUICK SWITCH TO WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
GALES AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS OUTFLOW WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE. GENERAL WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE CHANNELS, WITH AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS SEEING CLOSER
TO 7 TO 9 FT. CHANNEL ENTRANCES MAY SEE HEIGHTS UP TO 25 FT
PUSHING IN WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS WILL DROP TO 1 TO 3 FEET INTO
SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ319-320.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ320>322-
325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-021-022-643-644.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-031>036-053-641-642-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
UPDATE...NC
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK
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