156
FXAK67 PAJK 081311
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
511 AM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
SHORT TERM
THE STRONG LOW AND FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES, DECREASING WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THEIR WAKE. THE STACKED LOW AND
TROUGHING WILL LINGER OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. A NOTED TROUGH
PUSHING OFF THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT, ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES,
BUT WITH THE QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE SHOWERS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (2-4
INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT). HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST, INCLUDING PELICAN, SITKA AND ACROSS PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND WHERE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE
LOW/FRONT PUSH FURTHER INTO CANADA.
LONG TERM
SIMPLY PUT:
-CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK, HEAVY AT TIMES, CREATING
A COMPLEX SNOW FORECAST.
-OUTFLOW BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF GALE
FORCE THURSDAY.
MONDAY TWO REGIMES WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE STATE OF ALASKA AND
GULF: THE FIRST IS A PROMINENT RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING SEA, THE
SECOND A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ALCAN BORDER STRETCHING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE AND
INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST IN THE COMING WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TOUCHING ON THE PROMINENT RIDGE FIRST, STOUT NORTHERLY
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE’S AXIS WILL HELP REINFORCE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 850MB, TRANSLATING TO RELATIVELY DEEP INSTABILITY AS
COLD AIR MOVES EAST ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. THIS WILL
SERVE AS THE CATALYST FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF THEM
HEAVY AT TIMES. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY CREATING A COMPLEX SNOW FORECAST, A SURFACE
HIGH STRENGTHENS IN THE ARCTIC, WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. AS THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD, ALLOWING OUTFLOW TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THIS COLD AND DRY
ARCTIC AIR WILL HELP SHUNT SNOW FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK
SLOWLY, WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AS GALE FORCE OUTFLOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY. FRIDAY
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY; HOWEVER, WINTER WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEAST AS A CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST
OF HAWAII LIFTS INTO THE GULF BRINGING MOISTURE WITH IT, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT.
AVIATION
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO
BRING ON AND OFF DIPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR, THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN AT VFR WITH VIS AT 6SM OR MORE
AND CIGS ABOVE 4000 FT. EXPECTING TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AT TIMES DOWN TO IFR OR LIFR WITH VIS
DROPPING TO BELOW 2 TO 3SM AND CIGS DOWN TO AOB 2000 FT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HEAVIER OF SNOW SHOWERS PASSING. THE SHOWERS WILL LAST
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AS
THE LOW IN THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW, THOUGH THE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. BY AROUND 16 TO 20Z
TODAY, MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR,
EVEN AS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER AND AFFECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY AS SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THE WHOLE DAY.
THESE PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS AFTER
06Z SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL
PRIMARILY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE MAIN LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE, WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING FROM SITKA SOUTHWARDS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS WILL DETERIORATE CONDITIONS AGAIN TO MVFR OR LOWER
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT VIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HOWEVER WILL REMAIN VFR
INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IN TERMS OF WIND, THERE ARE NO LLWS CONCERNS REMAINING FOR THE
PANHANDLE FOR THE TAF PERIOD, AND SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
CALM AND LESS THAN 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE TAF SITES. SKAGWAY AND
HAINES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ELEVATED WINDS LASTING INTO THE
MORNING, WITH SKAGWAY EXPECTING 15 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT AND HAINES CONTINUING TO SEE 10 KT SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. BOTH WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE DURING THE DAY
IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS, THOUGH SKAGWAY MAY SEE THESE WINDS LAST
LONGER INTO THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. OTHER AREAS MAY
BEGIN TO SEE A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THESE
WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN LARGELY BELOW 10 KT. SOME SHOWERS MAY
BRING SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE LOW WIND
SPEEDS, HOWEVER THESE WILL MAINLY BE JUST AS THE SHOWER PASSES
OVER.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP
TODAY AND WILL STEADILY DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE NORTHERN GULF SEAS DROP
FROM 12 TO 16 FT TO 8 TO 12 FT THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL DROP FROM 15 TO 19 FT DOWN TO 10 TO 14 FT. SEAS DIP
FURTHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING FROM CROSS SOUND ON NORTH
OFF THE COAST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH SUNDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
AND WAVES BECOMING 1 TO 3 FT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLIP IN THE NORTHERN CHANNELS AS OUTFLOW DEVELOPS.
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH STRONG TO GALE
BREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR LYNN CANAL
AND GLACIER BAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...DS
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