224
FXAK67 PAJK 081911
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1111 AM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2026
UPDATE.../TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION/
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
SHORT TERM
THE STRONG LOW AND FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES, DECREASING WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THEIR WAKE. THE STACKED LOW AND
TROUGHING WILL LINGER OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. A NOTED TROUGH
PUSHING OFF THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT, ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES,
BUT WITH THE QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE SHOWERS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (2-4
INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT). HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST, INCLUDING PELICAN, SITKA AND ACROSS PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND WHERE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE
LOW/FRONT PUSH FURTHER INTO CANADA.
LONG TERM
SIMPLY PUT:
-CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK, HEAVY AT TIMES, CREATING
A COMPLEX SNOW FORECAST.
-OUTFLOW BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF GALE
FORCE THURSDAY.
MONDAY TWO REGIMES WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE STATE OF ALASKA AND
GULF: THE FIRST IS A PROMINENT RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING SEA, THE
SECOND A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ALCAN BORDER STRETCHING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE AND
INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST IN THE COMING WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TOUCHING ON THE PROMINENT RIDGE FIRST, STOUT NORTHERLY
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE’S AXIS WILL HELP REINFORCE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 850MB, TRANSLATING TO RELATIVELY DEEP INSTABILITY AS
COLD AIR MOVES EAST ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. THIS WILL
SERVE AS THE CATALYST FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF THEM
HEAVY AT TIMES. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY CREATING A COMPLEX SNOW FORECAST, A SURFACE
HIGH STRENGTHENS IN THE ARCTIC, WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. AS THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD, ALLOWING OUTFLOW TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THIS COLD AND DRY
ARCTIC AIR WILL HELP SHUNT SNOW FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK
SLOWLY, WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AS GALE FORCE OUTFLOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY. FRIDAY
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY; HOWEVER, WINTER WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEAST AS A CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST
OF HAWAII LIFTS INTO THE GULF BRINGING MOISTURE WITH IT, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z MONDAY/
ONSHORE FLOW, GIVING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS, CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
SATURDAY, MAKING FLIGHT CONDITIONS HIGHLY VARIABLE, WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SHOWERS GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LLWS VALUES WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY IN & NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE / NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA, INCLUDING PAGY,
DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP
TODAY AND WILL STEADILY DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE NORTHERN GULF SEAS DROP
FROM 12 TO 16 FT TO 8 TO 12 FT THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL DROP FROM 15 TO 19 FT DOWN TO 10 TO 14 FT. SEAS DIP
FURTHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING FROM CROSS SOUND ON NORTH
OFF THE COAST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH SUNDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
AND WAVES BECOMING 1 TO 3 FT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLIP IN THE NORTHERN CHANNELS AS OUTFLOW DEVELOPS.
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH STRONG TO GALE
BREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR LYNN CANAL
AND GLACIER BAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...DS
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