629
FXAK67 PAJK 082340
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN WITH BIGGER SHOWERS.
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP MONDAY, STEADILY INCREASING
THROUGH THE WEEK AND PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. OUTFLOW WILL BRING
COLDER, DRYER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE WEAKENING LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW HAS CONTINUED PUSHING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM THE GULF, BRINGING
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THIS FLOW
SCOOPING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WARM ENOUGH TO SWITCH PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN BRIEFLY. FOR
COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS, TEMPERATURES MAY JUMP UP
FROM AROUND FREEZING TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES AS THE SHOWER MOVES
THROUGH BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING BACK DOWN AS IT PASSES. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR ONLY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO DEVELOP FOR MUCH
OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIALLY HAVING IT ALL MELT AWAY WITH THE NEXT PASSING SHOWER.
THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WIND SPEEDS THROUGH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST INNER PASSES, TAIYA INLET, AND LYNN CANAL FOR MONDAY. THESE
SPEEDS ARE STILL JUST SCRAPING THE LOW END OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 30 MPH TUESDAY, BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 MPH MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHIFTS FROM A NE TO SW
ORIENTATION TO MORE OF A N TO S ORIENTATION MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH
MAY BE LESS CONDUCIVE TO STRONG WINDS THROUGH TAIYA GOING INTO
TUESDAY. AS THIS OUTFLOW BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH MONDAY, IT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO FORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW CARRYING SHOWERS MORE
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY, THOUGH THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE
OCCASIONAL SHOWER THAT MAKES IT THROUGH. FORECASTING POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING FLURRIES ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ON MONDAY AS
OUTFLOW STRENGTHENS.
LONG TERM
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE MID TO THE END OF WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE AK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GULF, ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING
SEA, WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING COLD
AIR OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL STILL SEE TIMES OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX, BUT SNOW WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. WITH THE
LOW LINGERING OVER THE GULF, SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SE AK. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE ALLOWING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO BRING
MODERATE SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND TIMES OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS BUILDING. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL SLOWLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH. ALL INNER CHANNEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
NORTHERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN
OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND ICY
STRAIT WITH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33 KTS) THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TIMES OF GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 40 KTS) ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR LAND
WINDS, SKAGWAY IS LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS WITH A 60 TO 70%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH, AND AROUND A 20 TO 30% CHANCE
FOR GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, WEDNESDAY.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT PUSHES INTO
THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA DUE TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WHEN
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE ALLOWING FOR THIS CHANGE
IN PATTERN.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY/
ONSHORE FLOW, GIVING CONTINUED
DECENT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES, MAKING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BOUNCY / HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS A NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WIND
PATTERN SETS IN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, DRYING THINGS OUT &
DECREASING CLOUD COVER. LLWS VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
BENIGN SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN &
NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTH ON MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE / NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
AREA, INCLUDING PAGY & PAHN, DUE TO THE ENHANCED NORTH TO SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BUILD-IN.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): GULF WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
VARIABLE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES (7 TO 16 KTS) IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND WESTERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KTS) IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF. THESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST INTO MONDAY,
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF SLIGHTLY DECREASING
AND SHIFTING SOUTH. THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SHOWERS INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THOSE
GENERALLY SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF HAS A CHANCE OF FALLING AS RAIN, WHILE THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO 11
TO 13 FT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH 13 TO 16 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS MAY SEE UP
TO 20 FT WAVE HEIGHTS PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THROUGH MONDAY, GULF WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY DECREASE TO 7 TO 12 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS STILL IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY 9 TO 12 FT SWELL
AT A PERIOD OF ABOUT 12 TO 13 SECONDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE TO 2
TO 6 FT AT A PERIOD OF AROUND 6 TO 8 SECONDS BEFORE OUTFLOW WINDS
BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF AND TURN THE SWELL TO A
WIDESPREAD NORTHEASTERLY 1 TO 2 FT TUESDAY. OUTFLOW WILL BRING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO STRONG BREEZES COMING OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT ALONG THE STRONGEST WINDS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED SUNDAY, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
GUSTS LINGERING IN SOUTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND FROM POINT
COUVERDEN UP THROUGH LYNN CANAL. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND YAKUTAT BAY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY CALM DOWN
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW SWITCHES WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY
INCREASE TO FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS) THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
FLOWING THROUGH TAIYA INLET INTO LYNN CANAL, THEN DOWN ICY STRAIT
AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION LOOKS TO
SLIGHTLY SHIFT TO MORE OF A N/S DIRECTION FROM NE/SW, WHICH WILL
MAKE TAIYA LESS LIKELY TO THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. GLACIER BAY ALSO HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS
COMING OUT OF THE UPPER ARMS, BUT THIS ALSO GREATLY DEPENDS ON THE
GRADIENT'S ORIENTATION. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH TUESDAY, EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW-END
SUSTAINED GALES THROUGH LYNN AND AROUND POINT COUVERDEN. 1 TO 3 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT IN
AREAS OF STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHANNELS.
CHANNEL ENTRANCES ARE CURRENTLY SEEING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS
PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF, BUT THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OUT
OUTFLOW TAKES HOLD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
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