397
FXAK67 PAJK 090614 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1014 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2026
UPDATE
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
CREATING A COMPLEX SNOW FORECAST. AS OF 10 PM AKST SUNDAY, WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SITKA, POW, KETCHIKAN, AND
METLAKATLA. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
MORE INTERIOR COMMUNITIES FROM GUSTAVUS/JUNEAU SOUTH TOWARD
WRANGELL. SIMPLY PUT, EXPECT SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW, WITH THE MOST SNOW LIKELY FOR AREAS UNDER THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THESE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, SNOW AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD MULTI-VORTEX LOW IN THE N GULF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE
TOWARDS THE N PAC. GENERAL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS 3500 TO 7000FT AND 6SM WITHIN LIGHT SNOW WITH
BRIEF DROPS TO IFR/LIFR. THROUGH TONIGHT, ANTICIPATING OVERALL VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST, BUT MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES
TO BE HIT OR MISS SNOW SHOWERS WITH SHORT DURATION WINDOWS OF IFR
TO LIFR VISIBILITIES ONE MILE OR LESS, ERRATIC WINDS, AND
INTERMITTENT CEILINGS DROPPING AOB 1000FT. OVERALL WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CAVEAT BEING OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGIN THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS FAR N
TAF SITES OF SKAGWAY AND HAINES, WITH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON UP TO 15KTS AND ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 340 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN WITH BIGGER SHOWERS.
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP MONDAY, STEADILY INCREASING
THROUGH THE WEEK AND PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. OUTFLOW WILL BRING
COLDER, DRYER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM...
WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE WEAKENING LOW SHIFTS SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW HAS CONTINUED PUSHING WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM THE GULF, BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY COMMUNITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THIS FLOW SCOOPING DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO SWITCH
PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN BRIEFLY. FOR COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED THIS, TEMPERATURES MAY JUMP UP FROM AROUND FREEZING TO
NEARLY 40 DEGREES AS THE SHOWER MOVES THROUGH BEFORE QUICKLY
DROPPING BACK DOWN AS IT PASSES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR ONLY MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH
LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIALLY HAVING IT ALL
MELT AWAY WITH THE NEXT PASSING SHOWER.
THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WIND SPEEDS THROUGH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST INNER PASSES, TAIYA INLET, AND LYNN CANAL FOR MONDAY. THESE
SPEEDS ARE STILL JUST SCRAPING THE LOW END OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 30 MPH TUESDAY, BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 MPH MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHIFTS FROM A NE TO SW
ORIENTATION TO MORE OF A N TO S ORIENTATION MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH
MAY BE LESS CONDUCIVE TO STRONG WINDS THROUGH TAIYA GOING INTO
TUESDAY. AS THIS OUTFLOW BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH MONDAY, IT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO FORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW CARRYING SHOWERS MORE
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY, THOUGH THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE
OCCASIONAL SHOWER THAT MAKES IT THROUGH. FORECASTING POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING FLURRIES ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ON MONDAY AS
OUTFLOW STRENGTHENS.
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE MID TO THE END OF WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE AK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF,
ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA, WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING COLD AIR OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL STILL SEE TIMES OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT
SNOW WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. WITH THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE GULF, SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SE AK. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE ALLOWING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO BRING
MODERATE SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND TIMES OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS BUILDING. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL SLOWLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH. ALL INNER CHANNEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
NORTHERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN
OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND ICY
STRAIT WITH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33 KTS) THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TIMES OF GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 40 KTS) ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR LAND
WINDS, SKAGWAY IS LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS WITH A 60 TO 70%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH, AND AROUND A 20 TO 30% CHANCE
FOR GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, WEDNESDAY.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT PUSHES INTO
THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA DUE TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WHEN
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE ALLOWING FOR THIS CHANGE
IN PATTERN.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): GULF WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
VARIABLE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES (7 TO 16 KTS) IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND WESTERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KTS) IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF. THESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST INTO MONDAY,
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF SLIGHTLY DECREASING
AND SHIFTING SOUTH. THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SHOWERS INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THOSE
GENERALLY SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF HAS A CHANCE OF FALLING AS RAIN, WHILE THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO 11
TO 13 FT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH 13 TO 16 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS MAY SEE UP
TO 20 FT WAVE HEIGHTS PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THROUGH MONDAY, GULF WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY DECREASE TO 7 TO 12 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS STILL IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY 9 TO 12 FT SWELL
AT A PERIOD OF ABOUT 12 TO 13 SECONDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE TO 2
TO 6 FT AT A PERIOD OF AROUND 6 TO 8 SECONDS BEFORE OUTFLOW WINDS
BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF AND TURN THE SWELL TO A
WIDESPREAD NORTHEASTERLY 1 TO 2 FT TUESDAY. OUTFLOW WILL BRING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO STRONG BREEZES COMING OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT ALONG THE STRONGEST WINDS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED SUNDAY, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
GUSTS LINGERING IN SOUTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND FROM POINT
COUVERDEN UP THROUGH LYNN CANAL. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND YAKUTAT BAY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY CALM DOWN
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW SWITCHES WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY
INCREASE TO FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS) THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
FLOWING THROUGH TAIYA INLET INTO LYNN CANAL, THEN DOWN ICY STRAIT
AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION LOOKS TO
SLIGHTLY SHIFT TO MORE OF A N/S DIRECTION FROM NE/SW, WHICH WILL
MAKE TAIYA LESS LIKELY TO THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. GLACIER BAY ALSO HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS
COMING OUT OF THE UPPER ARMS, BUT THIS ALSO GREATLY DEPENDS ON THE
GRADIENT'S ORIENTATION. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH TUESDAY, EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW-END
SUSTAINED GALES THROUGH LYNN AND AROUND POINT COUVERDEN. 1 TO 3 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT IN
AREAS OF STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHANNELS.
CHANNEL ENTRANCES ARE CURRENTLY SEEING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS
PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF, BUT THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OUT
OUTFLOW TAKES HOLD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ323-328-
330-332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
UPDATE...AP
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK
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