946
FXAK67 PAJK 091334
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
534 AM AKDT MON MAR 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, SHIFTING SOUTH MID TO LATE WEEK.
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING TODAY, STEADILY INCREASING
THROUGH MID WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTFLOW WILL BRING COLDER, DRIER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO THROW SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR ON SOUTH. UPTICKS IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND
INTO THE PANHANDLE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR
JUNEAU, SITKA AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WORKED
INTO THE PANHANDLE AND IS BRINGING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, WITH
VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY,
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY DUE HEATING AND
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS MAY PICK UP AGAIN
AFTER SUNDOWN AND ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
FURTHER NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE YUKON
WITH COLD, DRIER NORTHERLY OUTFLOW INCREASING FOR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH OVERCOME THE NEAR
SURFACE DRIER AIR, ESPECIALLY AT HAINES, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LONG TERM
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE MID TO THE END OF WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE AK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE GULF, ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA, WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING COLD AIR OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL STILL SEE TIMES OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT SNOW WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. WITH THE LOW LINGERING OVER THE
GULF, SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SE AK. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
ALLOWING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO BRING MODERATE SNOW WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, AND TIMES OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS BUILDING. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL SLOWLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH. ALL INNER CHANNEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
NORTHERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN
OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND ICY
STRAIT WITH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33 KTS) THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TIMES OF GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 40 KTS) ARE ALSO POSSIBLE,
MOST LIKELY OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR LAND WINDS,
SKAGWAY IS LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS WITH A 60 TO 70% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH, AND AROUND A 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH, WEDNESDAY.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT PUSHES INTO THE
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA DUE TO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WHEN THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE ALLOWING FOR THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.
AVIATION
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE COAST. DROPS DOWN TO
IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM LOWERED CIGS AND VIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING INTERMITTENT DROPS IN CIGS TO AOB 2000 FT AND
VIS FROM 3 SM DOWN TO 1SM OR LESS DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS,
LASTING THROUGH AROUND 16 TO 18Z. AN IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. SOME AREAS MAY STILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL
DROPS TO MVFR OR LOWER DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, AS SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
SHOWERS WILL BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE CURRENT BAND MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND WILL ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUD COVER AND DURATION OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY.
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW THAT
HAS BEGUN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, WITH 10 TO 15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL LARGELY SEE WINDS 10
KTS OR LESS, WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH. STILL EXPECTING NO LLWS CONCERNS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SEE
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP FROM 8 TO 12 FEET DOWN TO 6 TO 10 FEET THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TODAY AND WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK FROM CROSS SOUND ON NORTH OFF THE COAST.
WINDS AND SEAS TREND UP AS A RESULT AND LOOK TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT. OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WAVE HEIGHTS DROP FROM
12 TO 16 FT TO 8 TO 12 FT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS DIP FURTHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIP TO THE NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN CHANNELS AS OUTFLOW DEVELOPS. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH STRONG TO GALE BREEZES EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY.
CHANNEL ENTRANCES ARE CURRENTLY SEEING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS
PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF, BUT THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS
OUTFLOW TAKES HOLD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TREND UP FOR LYNN CANAL,
GLACIER BAY, CHATHAM STRAIT AND STEPHENS PASSAGE AS PERSISTENT
OUTFLOW BRINGS MORE FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ323-
325>330-332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...DS
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