635
FXAK67 PAJK 100540
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
940 PM AKDT MON MAR 9 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION UPDATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
AND CHALLENGE FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR (PAGS/PAOH/PAJN) SOUTH
TO DIXON ENTRANCE. ANY AVIATOR ATTEMPTING TO NAVIGATE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SHOULD PLAN ON PERIODS OF LIFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS, WITH
VFR IN BETWEEN. THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL THAT JUNEAU MAY HOLD ONTO
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, PRIMARILY IMPACTING LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY. FOR
FOLKS FLYING THE NORTHERN COAST TO/FROM PAYA, EXPECT VFR TO HOLD.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY CREATING A COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST. PLAN ON PERIODS OF
IFR FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 349 PM AKDT
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK, WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK
AND PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. OUTFLOW WILL BRING COLDER, DRYER
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
- SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM...COMPLICATED PATTERN GOING FORWARD, WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVING, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS INTO AREAS FROM ICY STRAIT DOWN THE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. AS SUCH, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE PROFILES UP TO AROUND 600 MB ARE PRESENT. AS OF NOW,
SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST,
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON AN AREA FROM PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND UP TO
KAKE AND PETERSBURG. FURTHERMORE, A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SETTLED
OVER THE JUNEAU AREA, WITH THE ONLY THING LACKING IS MOISTURE.
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY, EXPECTING TO SEE THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVE SOUTHWARD, SHIFTING THE STORM DIRECTION OF THESE SHOWERS TO
BE MORE MOVING NORTHWARD RATHER THAN NORTHEAST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP STRONGER SHOWERS AWAY FROM SITKA, PETERSBURG, AND
WRANGELL, AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF BARANOF ISLAND, INCLUDING TENAKEE SPRINGS AND
POSSIBLY HOONAH. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME, ICY STRAIT INCLUDING JUNEAU WILL SEE INCREASING DRY
AIR ALOFT, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE MID TO THE END OF WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE AK. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE ALLOWING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO BRING
MODERATE SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND TIMES OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS. THE NEXT WAVE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS MOST
LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A BAND OF HIGHER VORTICITY MOVES NORTHWARD. CURRENTLY,
HIGHEST ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WITH
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 6 TO 8 INCHES. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF, ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA, WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING COLD AIR OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL STILL SEE TIMES OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT SNOW
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS BUILDING. ALL INNER CHANNEL WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN, N STEPHENS
PASSAGE, AND ICY STRAIT WITH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33
KTS) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TIMES OF GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 40 KTS)
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER
LYNN CANAL. FOR LAND WINDS, SKAGWAY IS LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS
WITH A 50 TO 60% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS COLDER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS
MEANS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE ALLOWING FOR THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.
AVIATION.../ THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON / BROAD SCALE LOW OVER
THE GULF PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY STAYING QUASI-STATIONARY SO
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACTIVITY ONGOING. BETTER SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THEN ALONG THE COAST
MOUNTAINS WHICH RIDE HIGHER SHOWER CATCHERS. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING, THOUGH SHOULD SEE STUFF LOWER OVERNIGHT SO CEILING COULD
LOWER BELOW 3000FT. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE
THE WORST OF CONDITIONS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SOMEWHAT STAGNANT PATTERN FOR
THE OUTSIDE WATERS, WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR THE NE GULF COAST, EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NE GAP FLOW WINDS TO A STRONG BREEZE
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES, INCLUDING OUT OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WESTERLY SWELL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 12-15 FT TO 7-9 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AGAIN, SOMEWHAT STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE
INSIDE WATERS, WITH A SIMILAR STORY OF A SLOW TRANSITION INTO
NORTHERLY WINDS IN CHATHAM STRAIT, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND FREDERICK
SOUND. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAST THE
TRANSITION FROM SE WINDS TO NE, PARTICULARLY NEAR FIVE FINGER,
AND WHEN IT TRANSITIONS TO NE, WILL THE WINDS ALSO COLLAPSE DOWN
TO A GENTLE BREEZE. OTHERWISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES FOR LYNN CANAL, DOWN TO THE CONVERGENCE POINT OF
POINT COUVERDEN, WITH STRENGTHENING SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ321.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ325-328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ326-
327-329.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-
671.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...NC
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