282
FXAK67 PAJK 101328
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
528 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK, WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE WEEK.
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK
AND PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. OUTFLOW WILL BRING COLDER, DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOWS SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW OUT IN THE EASTERN GULF AND THEN PUSHING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. UPTICKS IN
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS SURFACE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER, SATELLITE SNOW FALL PRODUCTS AND AREA SURFACE OBS ARE
GENERALLY INDICATING SNOWFALL RATES BEING A BIT LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY. ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SNOW TOTAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SHOWERY,
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW, LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF BARANOF ISLAND,
INCLUDING TENAKEE SPRINGS AND HOONAH, WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE YUKON
WITH COLD, DRIER NORTHERLY OUTFLOW INCREASING FOR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE MID TO THE END OF WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE AK. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE ALLOWING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO BRING
MODERATE SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND TIMES OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS. THE NEXT WAVE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS MOST
LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A BAND OF HIGHER VORTICITY MOVES NORTHWARD. CURRENTLY,
HIGHEST ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WITH
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 6 TO 8 INCHES. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF, ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA, WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING COLD AIR OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL STILL SEE TIMES OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT SNOW
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS BUILDING. ALL INNER CHANNEL WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN, N STEPHENS
PASSAGE, AND ICY STRAIT WITH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33
KTS) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TIMES OF GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 40 KTS)
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER
LYNN CANAL. FOR LAND WINDS, SKAGWAY IS LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS
WITH A 50 TO 60% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS COLDER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS
MEANS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE ALLOWING FOR THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.
AVIATION
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATION THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE. THE OUTER COASTLINE
FROM CROSS SOUND SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE ON AND OFF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW THEN
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OFFSHORE. THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH MORE NORTHWARD
WITH MOST OF THESE SHOWERS EXPECTING TO PUSH AS FAR NORTH AS ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INTERMITTENT DROPS
IN CIGS TO AOB 2000 FT, DOWN TO AOB 800 FT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS BRING VIS DOWN TO 2SM OR
LOWER DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF THESE
WORSE FLYING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR TO IFR WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BEING
MOST LIKELY THROUGH 20Z THIS MORNING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AROUND MIDDAY, BEFORE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT
INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. OVERALL VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
NO LLWS CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD, AND THE ONLY WIND CONCERN IS THE
OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING 15 TO 20 KT
WINDS FOR SKAGWAY AND HAINES INTO MIDDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR
HAINES AND UP TO 30 KT FOR SKAGWAY AS THE OUTFLOW STRENGTHENS DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN
INTO THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WEDNESDAY SETS UP FOR SOME
STRONGER NORTHERLY OUTFLOW.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE
BEGINNING AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW IN THE GULF
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. FROM CROSS SOUND NORTHWARD, NE GAP FLOW WINDS
INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES, INCLUDING OUT
OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. SEAS TREND UP AS A RESULT AND LOOK TO
BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTAL WATERS.
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WAVE HEIGHTS DROP FROM 7 TO 10 FT TO 4
TO 7 FT BY WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH STRONG BREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS, WITH GALES POSSIBLE FOR LYNN CANAL BY WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR LYNN CANAL
AND GLACIER BAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD IN LYNN CANAL, GLACIER
BAY, CHATHAM STRAIT AND STEPHENS PASSAGE AS PERSISTENT OUTFLOW
BRINGS MORE FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ321.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...DS
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