978
FXAK67 PAJK 101742 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
942 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2026
UPDATE
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PERIOD AS
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY DUE TO LOWERED VIS.
THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING SKAGWAY AND HAINES SHOULD
REMAIN EXEMPT FROM SNOW SHOWERS REACHING THEM AS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK, WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE WEEK.
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK
AND PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. OUTFLOW WILL BRING COLDER, DRYER
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOWS SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW OUT IN THE EASTERN GULF AND THEN PUSHING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. UPTICKS IN
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS SURFACE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER, SATELLITE SNOW FALL PRODUCTS AND AREA SURFACE OBS ARE
GENERALLY INDICATING SNOWFALL RATES BEING A BIT LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY. ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SNOW TOTAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SHOWERY,
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW, LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF BARANOF ISLAND,
INCLUDING TENAKEE SPRINGS AND HOONAH, WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE YUKON
WITH COLD, DRIER NORTHERLY OUTFLOW INCREASING FOR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE MID TO THE END OF WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE AK. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE ALLOWING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO BRING
MODERATE SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND TIMES OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS. THE NEXT WAVE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS MOST
LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A BAND OF HIGHER VORTICITY MOVES NORTHWARD. CURRENTLY,
HIGHEST ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WITH
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 6 TO 8 INCHES. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF, ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA, WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING COLD AIR OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL STILL SEE TIMES OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT SNOW
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS BUILDING. ALL INNER CHANNEL WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER LYNN CANAL INTO POINT COUVERDEN, N STEPHENS
PASSAGE, AND ICY STRAIT WITH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33
KTS) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TIMES OF GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 40 KTS)
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER
LYNN CANAL. FOR LAND WINDS, SKAGWAY IS LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS
WITH A 50 TO 60% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS COLDER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS
MEANS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE ALLOWING FOR THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON / BROAD SCALE LOW OVER
THE GULF PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY STAYING QUASI-STATIONARY SO
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACTIVITY ONGOING. BETTER SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THEN ALONG THE COAST
MOUNTAINS WHICH RIDE HIGHER SHOWER CATCHERS. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING, THOUGH SHOULD SEE STUFF LOWER OVERNIGHT SO CEILING COULD
LOWER BELOW 3000FT. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE
THE IMPACTS THE WORST.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SOMEWHAT STAGNANT PATTERN FOR
THE OUTSIDE WATERS, WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR THE NE GULF COAST, EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NE GAP FLOW WINDS TO A STRONG BREEZE
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES, INCLUDING OUT OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WESTERLY SWELL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 12-15 FT TO 7-9 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AGAIN, SOMEWHAT STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE
INSIDE WATERS, WITH A SIMILAR STORY OF A SLOW TRANSITION INTO
NORTHERLY WINDS IN CHATHAM STRAIT, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND FREDERICK
SOUND. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAST THE
TRANSITION FROM SE WINDS TO NE, PARTICULARLY NEAR FIVE FINGER,
AND WHEN IT TRANSITIONS TO NE, WILL THE WINDS ALSO COLLAPSE DOWN
TO A GENTLE BREEZE. OTHERWISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES FOR LYNN CANAL, DOWN TO THE CONVERGENCE POINT OF
POINT COUVERDEN, WITH STRENGTHENING SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ321.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...DS
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