411
FXAK67 PAJK 110535
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
935 PM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION UPDATE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT,
WITH VFR DIMINISHING TO IFR/LIFR, AND THEN GOING BACK TO VFR. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND, ESPECIALLY ALONG PRINCE OF WALES. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON STARTING IN THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR FIRST, WITH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FINALLY
STARTING TO DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS THAT REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF PRINCE OF
WALES.
COLD NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN LYNN CANAL AND TAKU
INLET, EXPECTING TO REACH PEAK CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 335 PM AKDT
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK, WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE WEEK.
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK
AND PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. OUTFLOW WILL BRING COLDER, DRYER
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOWS SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW OUT IN THE EASTERN GULF AND THEN PUSHING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. STRONGER
ENHANCED SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING SURFACE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND INTO
THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, SATELLITE SNOW FALL PRODUCTS AND AREA
SURFACE OBS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING SNOWFALL RATES BEING A BIT
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE ARE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SHOWERY, CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW,
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG BARANOF
ISLAND, AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TO KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE YUKON
WITH COLD, DRIER NORTHERLY OUTFLOW INCREASING FOR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MID TO
END OF WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THE MAIN
STORY. A CHANGE COMES DURING THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. ON THURSDAY, NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED OVER
LYNN CANAL, POINT COUVERDEN, AND SKAGWAY. THE STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS WILL STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33 KTS) THROUGH LYNN
CANAL WITH A 30% CHANCE OF LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 40 KTS)
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. POINT COUVERDEN IS THE MOST LIKELY
AREA TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. FOR SKAGWAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REMAIN AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.
NOW FOR SNOW POTENTIAL, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY
FOR MID WEEK. STRONGEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS A BAND OF VORTICITY MOVES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS, BUT THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THESE HEAVIEST SHOWERS FALLING
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
NORTH SE AK ALLOWING FOR ANY SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
A STRONGER SYSTEM THEN ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND BRINING MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY, THE FOCUS OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINLY WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK. IT
COULD BE FARTHER SOUTH BRINGING LESS PRECIPITATION, BUT ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN AS ALL SNOW. OR THE LOW COULD TRACK FARTHER
NORTH ALLOWING FOR MORE PRECIPITATION, BUT IT COULD CREATE A CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE ALLOWING
FOR THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR
AVIATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS DOWN TO
IFR AND BRIEFLY LIFR IN SOME CASES. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION, THE
OUTER COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND INCLUDING CRAIG AND KLAWOCK
HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY RECIPIENT OF PARTICULARLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS, THOUGH TRAINING SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO SET UP ALONG
CHATHAM STRAIT FROM AROUND POINT GARDNER PROGRESSING NORTHWARD
OVER THE JUNEAU ICEFIELD. WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE, A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY,
WITH MORE CONSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THEIR WAKE. FROM
FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
BRING LOWERED CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SOMEWHAT STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE
OUTSIDE WATERS, WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE NE GULF COAST, EXPECT TO SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN NE GAP FLOW WINDS TO A STRONG BREEZE OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES, INCLUDING OUT OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN WESTERLY SWELL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 12-15 FT TO 7-9 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AGAIN, SOMEWHAT STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE
INSIDE WATERS, WITH A SIMILAR STORY OF A SLOW TRANSITION INTO
NORTHERLY WINDS IN CHATHAM STRAIT, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND FREDERICK
SOUND. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAST THE
TRANSITION FROM SE WINDS TO NE, PARTICULARLY NEAR FIVE FINGER, AND
WHEN IT TRANSITIONS TO NE, WILL THE WINDS ALSO COLLAPSE DOWN TO A
GENTLE BREEZE. OTHERWISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES FOR LYNN CANAL, DOWN TO THE CONVERGENCE POINT OF POINT
COUVERDEN, WITH STRENGTHENING SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-651.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-032-053-641-643-644-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...BEZENEK
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