832
FXAK67 PAJK 111848 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1048 AM AKDT WED MAR 11 2026
UPDATE
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FLYING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SINCE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF CONTINUE TO THROW
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST, WITH MORE
FREQUENT SHOWERS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH IFR AND
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO LIFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FROM ICY STRAIT NORTHWARD, INNER CHANNELS CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT FROM WEAK NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CIGS
GENERALLY AOA 5000 FT. SOME GUSTY HEADWINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IF
FLYING INTO SKAGWAY OR HAINES.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR MID WEEK, WITH CHANCES
OF SNOW CONTINUING TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS.
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BRINGS COLDER & DRIER WEATHER FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS OUT
OF A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS IS
USHERING IN COLDER DRIER AIR FOR THAT AREA. THE LYNN CANAL AREA
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE
SKAGWAY AREA FOR GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY & SFC OBSERVATIONS, THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE & PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE & OUTER COAST HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS OF VARIABLE INTENSITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE ARE GENERALLY ROTATING AROUND A COUPLE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE OUT FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN GATEWAY
BOROUGH, ANNETTE ISLAND, & SITKA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2
& 6 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE & HIGHLY
VARIABLE INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
IMPACTS WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MID TO
END OF WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THE MAIN
STORY. A CHANGE COMES DURING THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. ON THURSDAY, NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED OVER
LYNN CANAL, POINT COUVERDEN, AND SKAGWAY. THE STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS WILL STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (22 TO 33 KTS) THROUGH LYNN
CANAL WITH A 30% CHANCE OF LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 40 KTS)
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. POINT COUVERDEN IS THE MOST LIKELY
AREA TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. FOR SKAGWAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REMAIN AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.
NOW FOR SNOW POTENTIAL, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY
FOR MID WEEK. STRONGEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS A BAND OF VORTICITY MOVES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS, BUT THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THESE HEAVIEST SHOWERS FALLING
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
NORTH SE AK ALLOWING FOR ANY SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
A STRONGER SYSTEM THEN ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND BRINING MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY, THE FOCUS OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINLY WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK. IT
COULD BE FARTHER SOUTH BRINGING LESS PRECIPITATION, BUT ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN AS ALL SNOW. OR THE LOW COULD TRACK FARTHER
NORTH ALLOWING FOR MORE PRECIPITATION, BUT IT COULD CREATE A CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE ALLOWING
FOR THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.
AVIATION
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY, WITH THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUING TO BE THE DROP
FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR OR LIFR FROM BOTH VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS AS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE, WITH
VIS OF 1 TO 2SM OR LOWER DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND CIGS AOB
2000 FT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY AS THE NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW BEGINS TO HELP KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF ICY
STRAIT AND FURTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NE COASTLINE. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR DROPS TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND STILL THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST OF POW AND KETCHIKAN DUE TO
THE MORE PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
AS ONE OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS STEMMING FROM THE MULTI-VORTEX LOW IN
THE GULF MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE
EXTENT OF THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS IS ALONGSIDE THE DRY AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
STRENGTHENING OF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH TOO
WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND SOME OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ALONG THE COAST OF POW AND AROUND
KETCHIKAN THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE
LIKELY TO RETURN INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THESE AREAS AS THE
SHOWERS BECOME LESS PERSISTENT AND AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS
OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOWN LYNN CANAL, TAKU INLET, AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE. EXPECTING 15 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE SURFACE FOR
SKAGWAY AND HAINES, WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT, WITH THE PEAK WINDS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A
GENERALLY BENIGN PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF, WHICH WILL SEE SOME NORTHEASTERLY GAP FLOW WINDS OF UP TO
BETWEEN AROUND 25 TO 35 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, GIVING WAVES
OF UP TO 9-11 FT, WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO TO 15-25 KT & 3-6 FT BY
FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW GRADIENT DIMINISHES. THE REST OF
THE EASTERN GULF WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT & WAVES BETWEEN 4 &
7 FT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, A
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE FROM AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE YUKON OF CANADA, GIVING A TIGHTENED
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT & LOWER PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. THIS IS GIVING BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT(~25-30KT) & GALE-
FORCE(~35KT) WINDS & SEAS UP TO BETWEEN 7 & 11 FT FOR NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, LIKE LYNN CANAL,
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, & STEPHENS PASSAGE UNTIL THAT PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP / RELAXES ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
10-20 KT & SEAS WILL PRECIPITOUSLY SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS(THE SOUTH), EXPECT WINDS OF
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2-3 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS UNDER A RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328-
330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-651.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-032-034-053-643-644-
661-663-664-671-672.
UPDATE...STJ
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...JLC
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