538
FXAK67 PAJK 120444 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
253 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR MID WEEK, WITH CHANCES
OF SNOW CONTINUING TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS.
- OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BRINGS COLDER & DRIER WEATHER FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / BROAD COMPLEX MULTI
CENTER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ROTATING ITS CENTERS WITH A
SLOW SOUTHEAST SLIDE AS WELL. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY
LIMITED FROM NEAR SITKA EAST- SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KAKE THEN
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MISTY FJORDS. THE FAVORED LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AREA IS SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND AND PRICE OF WALES ISLAND. DO
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER TROUGH FROM ONE OF THE GULF TO SPREAD IN LATE
THURSDAY WITH LIKELIHOOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS THAT COULD HAVE
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SHOWERS AND ALSO FOR THIS EVENING.
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOCAL FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
STARTS OUT RELATIVELY CALM BEFORE A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVES
UP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMAINING OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE AGAIN
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. YAKUTAT
MAY ALSO SEE SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION WITH A LINGERING SURFACE
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY. THESE WINDS
WON'T GET TOO HIGH BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUMPS UP
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND SENDS A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, A GALE FORCE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRING AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES START
OFF COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO FALL AS SNOW, WHICH COULD GIVE PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN BRINGING WARMER AIR, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO HIGHS IN THE HIGH 30S AND LOW
40S, WHICH WILL TURN THIS PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. GOING INTO
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
DAY. PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY SEE OVER HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MAY SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES IT UP THERE WILL BE SNOW. LINGERING
OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNELS MAY LIMIT THEM
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN FALL DURING THIS EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON HOW FAR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL MAKE IT NORTH, AND IF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
AS FAST AS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
/THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE SOUTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING IFR AND OCCASIONALLY
LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. TRAINING SHOWERS
HAVE LEAD TO THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR MORE AT
TIMES OVER A TAF SITE, WHILE AT OTHER TIMES LESS THAN HALF AN
HOUR. THUS IS THE NATURE OF THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE PRIMARY
LIMITER IN CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE HEAVIEST OF SHOWERS, THOUGH LOWERED CIGS AOB 1000 FEET ARE
ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN CLARENCE
STRAIT AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO BRING MORE DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALSO MEANS BRISK HEADWINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY, ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE TOP
WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF ANGOON.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHWARD, IT WILL DRAG
SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLEARING OUT MORE
OF THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A GENERALLY
BENIGN PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, WHICH
WILL SEE SOME NORTHEASTERLY GAP FLOW WINDS OF UP TO BETWEEN AROUND
25 TO 35 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, GIVING WAVES OF UP TO 9-11
FT, WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO TO 15-25 KT & 3-6 FT BY FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW GRADIENT DIMINISHES. THE REST OF THE EASTERN
GULF WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT & WAVES BETWEEN 4 & 7 FT
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, A
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE FROM AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE YUKON OF CANADA, GIVING A TIGHTENED NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT & LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS
GIVING BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT(~25-30KT) & GALE-FORCE(~35KT) WINDS &
SEAS UP TO BETWEEN 7 & 11 FT FOR NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, LIKE LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT,
& STEPHENS PASSAGE UNTIL THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP / RELAXES
ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT & SEAS WILL PRECIPITOUSLY
SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, FREEZING SPRAY FOR LYNN CANAL, GLACIER BAY AND PARTS
OF NORTH CHATHAM STRAIT, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND WESTERN ICY STRAIT.
FOR THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS(THE SOUTH), EXPECT WINDS OF
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2-3 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
UNDER A RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328-
330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-651.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-053-643-644-663-664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
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