634
FXAK67 PAJK 121412
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
612 AM AKDT THU MAR 12 2026
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS
& FOG HAVE DEVELOPED & MOVED IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
INCLUDING THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, & ANNETTE ISLAND
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS VIA SOLAR HEATING. WE STILL HAVE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS OUT OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CANADIAN YUKON IN
PLACE, KEEPING THINGS CLEARER & DRIER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE &
KEEPING BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AREA, INCLUDING SKAGWAY & PAHN, & NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED
INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND WITH STRONGER WINDS THE
FARTHER NORTH YOU GO CLOSER TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND FROM THIS MORNING INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS OVER TIME. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WEAKER SIDE
APPROACHES & MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS &
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THAT AREA. PRIMARILY PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN GATEWAY BOROUGH, & THE ANNETTE ISLAND
AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THIS.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
STARTS OUT RELATIVELY CALM BEFORE A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVES
UP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMAINING OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE AGAIN
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. YAKUTAT
MAY ALSO SEE SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION WITH A LINGERING SURFACE
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY. THESE WINDS
WON'T GET TOO HIGH BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUMPS UP
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND SENDS A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, A GALE FORCE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRING AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES START
OFF COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO FALL AS SNOW, WHICH COULD GIVE PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN BRINGING WARMER AIR, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO HIGHS IN THE HIGH 30S AND LOW
40S, WHICH WILL TURN THIS PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. GOING INTO
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
DAY. PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY SEE OVER HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MAY SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES IT UP THERE WILL BE SNOW. LINGERING
OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNELS MAY LIMIT THEM
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN FALL DURING THIS EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON HOW FAR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL MAKE IT NORTH, AND IF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
AS FAST AS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, WITH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE REMAINING VFR UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND YAKUTAT AND JUST ALONG THE REST OF THE COASTLINE.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO
MVFR TO IFR FROM PETERSBURG DOWN TO KETCHIKAN. CIGS MAY DROP TO 200-
400 FT AT TIMES AROUND KETCHIKAN AND ALONG SOME OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, AS A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS SAT OVERNIGHT
OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING. MAIN
VIS CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME FOR THIS AREA WILL BE RELATED TO THIS
LOW CLOUD LAYER, BUT AS THE SUN BEGINS TO RISE, IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RETURN TO VFR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO LINGER ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
INTERMITTENT DROPS TO MVFR TO IFR THIS MORNING FROM BOTH CIG AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS, BUT OVERALL THE IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTING TO LAST
INTO MIDDAY. THE SHOWERS NEAR YAKUTAT MAY STAY PRIMARILY OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY, BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
REDUCED VIS AND LOWERED CIGS WILL REMAIN IF THE LOW BRINGS THESE
SHOWERS MORE INTO THE NE COASTLINE RATHER THAN STAYING OFFSHORE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, MOVING IN FIRST FROM
SITKA DOWN ALONG POW BEGINNING AROUND 5Z, BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN TO MVFR TO IFR AS THIS MOVES THROUGH, FROM SITKA
OVER TO PETERSBURG AND SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND A DROP TO IFR/LIFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR POW
OVER TO KETCHIKAN AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT HOW NORTHWARD THESE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE.
IN TERMS OF WIND CONCERNS, NO LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY WITH 10-
20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING SOME 15 KT NE WINDS AROUND YAKUTAT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM LYNN CANAL DOWN TO ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR FROM
SEEING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY COMPARED TO THE COASTLINE AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS, A NORTHERLY OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE FROM AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE YUKON OF CANADA, GIVING A
TIGHTENED NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT & LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GIVING BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT(~25-30KT)
& GALE-FORCE(~35KT) WINDS & SEAS UP TO BETWEEN 7 & 11 FT FOR
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, LIKE
LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, & STEPHENS PASSAGE UNTIL
THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP / RELAXES ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT, & SEAS WILL PRECIPITOUSLY SUBSIDE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS(THE SOUTH),
EXPECT WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2-3 FT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER A RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD.
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): A GENERALLY
BENIGN PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, WHICH WILL SEE
SOME NORTHEASTERLY GAP FLOW WINDS OF UP TO BETWEEN AROUND 25 TO
35 KT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, GIVING WAVES OF UP TO 9-11 FT,
WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO TO 15-25 KT & 3-6 FT BY FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW GRADIENT DIMINISHES. THE REST OF THE EASTERN
GULF WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT & WAVES BETWEEN 4 & 7 FT
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-651.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-032-053-643-644-652-
663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...JLC
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