335
FXAK67 PAJK 121827
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1027 AM AKDT THU MAR 12 2026
UPDATE
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE, AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS
& FOG HAVE DEVELOPED & MOVED IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
INCLUDING THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, & ANNETTE ISLAND
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS VIA SOLAR HEATING. WE STILL HAVE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS OUT OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CANADIAN YUKON IN
PLACE, KEEPING THINGS CLEARER & DRIER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE &
KEEPING BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AREA, INCLUDING SKAGWAY & PAHN, & NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED
INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND WITH STRONGER WINDS THE
FARTHER NORTH YOU GO CLOSER TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND FROM THIS MORNING INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS OVER TIME. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WEAKER SIDE
APPROACHES & MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS &
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THAT AREA. PRIMARILY PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN GATEWAY BOROUGH, & THE ANNETTE ISLAND
AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THIS.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
STARTS OUT RELATIVELY CALM BEFORE A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVES
UP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMAINING OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE AGAIN
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. YAKUTAT
MAY ALSO SEE SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION WITH A LINGERING SURFACE
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY. THESE WINDS
WON'T GET TOO HIGH BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUMPS UP
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND SENDS A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, A GALE FORCE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRING AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES START
OFF COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO FALL AS SNOW, WHICH COULD GIVE PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN BRINGING WARMER AIR, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO HIGHS IN THE HIGH 30S AND LOW
40S, WHICH WILL TURN THIS PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. GOING INTO
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
DAY. PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY SEE OVER HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MAY SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES IT UP THERE WILL BE SNOW. LINGERING
OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNELS MAY LIMIT THEM
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN FALL DURING THIS EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON HOW FAR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL MAKE IT NORTH, AND IF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM UP
AS FAST AS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK CIRCULATION OFF CAPE SUCKLING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO YAKUTAT THROUGH THE MORNING LEADING TO
OFF AND ON MVFR VIS AND CIGS BEFORE LIKELY SHIFTING OFFSHORE IN
THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE PANHANDLE NORTH SITKA AND KAKE, SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE WITH ONLY SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO CONTEND WITH,
PARTICULARLY FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY.
FOR SITKA, SOME MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BRINGING LOCALIZED
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. THESE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR NECESSARY
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY IMPROVED TO
VFR WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE. A SMALL SHORT WAVE
SITTING OFF POW COULD THROW SOME OF THESE INTO THE OUTER COAST
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVING
INLAND OVER POW LATER THURSDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERN CLARENCE
STRAIT FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR,
THOUGH VIS RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY
CAUSE IFR OR OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS, A NORTHERLY OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE FROM AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE YUKON OF CANADA, GIVING A
TIGHTENED NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT & LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GIVING BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT(~25-30KT)
& GALE-FORCE(~35KT) WINDS & SEAS UP TO BETWEEN 7 & 11 FT FOR
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, LIKE
LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, & STEPHENS PASSAGE UNTIL
THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP / RELAXES ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT, & SEAS WILL PRECIPITOUSLY SUBSIDE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS(THE SOUTH),
EXPECT WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2-3 FT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER A RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD.
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): A GENERALLY
BENIGN PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, WHICH WILL SEE
SOME NORTHEASTERLY GAP FLOW WINDS OF UP TO BETWEEN AROUND 25 TO
35 KT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, GIVING WAVES OF UP TO 9-11 FT,
WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO TO 15-25 KT & 3-6 FT BY FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW GRADIENT DIMINISHES. THE REST OF THE EASTERN
GULF WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT & WAVES BETWEEN 4 & 7 FT
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-651.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-032-053-643-644-652-
664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...JLC
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