655
FXAK67 PAJK 130005
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKDT THU MAR 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THAT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADD FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT / THE BROAD MULTIPLE LOW
COMPLEX IN THE GULF CONTINUES WITH A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE FEATURE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SMALL MESO LOWS CAN AND HAVE SPUN OFF WEAK
SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW AROUND YAKUTAT AND SITKA TO DIXON ENTRANCE.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS OR WHERE SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUALLY MOVE OVER THE SAME TERRAIN. SO HAVE ISSUED
ADVISORIES FOR THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THE SHOWERS.
GUSTY WINDS DOWN LYNN CANAL TONIGHT IMPACTING HAINES AND SKAGWAY
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH, AND TO ABOUT 45 MPH FOR PT COUVERDEN TO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
A RETURN TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOMS ON THE
HORIZON, AS A STRONG SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY. DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
DEEPENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS LOCKED INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR A ~980
DECAMETER LOW TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST;
THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION IS STILL NOT YET SET IN STONE.
THE BIG STORIES FOR THE PANHANDLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SNOW
AND WIND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE
AK, AND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 KT OR HIGHER MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR FOR THESE
AREAS, ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE OUTER GULF COAST. SNOW WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD, WITH ANYWHERE FROM 3-12 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR
SEA LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY, AS THE
FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE SNOW
TOTALS. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTH, BUT EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK.
BEYOND THIS, WE ENTER BACK INTO A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL LOOKS SET TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
AS A LOW SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AT TIMES, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
MARITIME AND AVIATION CONCERNS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
CONCURRENTLY LOOKS SET TO RECEIVE STRONGER SURGES OF MOISTURE, AS
SYSTEMS RACING ALONG THE FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ARE ABLE
TO SIDE-SWIPE THE AREA.
AVIATION.../THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE ARCTIC OFFSHORE BOUNDARY SLIDES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. FOR PANHANDLE NORTH OF SITKA AND ANGOON, EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR, STAYING VFR THROUGH THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO NORTHERLY OUTFLOW. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY, THOUGH ON A DIMINISHING TREND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OUTER COAST NEAR CENTRAL BARANOF, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SNOW SQUALLS OFFSHORE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY. THESE HAVE BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AND DRIFT TOWARDS
SITKA, PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BY REDUCING VIS TO 1SM OR LESS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH
SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND BE CLEARING OUT
BY FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING POW AND SOUTHERN CLARENCE
STRAIT, SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED OFFSHORE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME POPPING UP OVER DIXON ENTRANCE AND ANNETTE
ISLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MVFR AND LIKELY IFR AT TIMES DUE TO VIS
RESTRICTIONS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
MARINE INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DOWN
LYNN CANAL TONIGHT AND EARLY PART OF FRIDAY TAPERING OFF TO 20 KT
OR LESS BY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 30 KT, ALTHOUGH ROCKY
ISLAND IS HOVERING NEAR GALE FORCE. GUSTS TO 45 KT AT ROCKY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DUE TO THE CONTINUED WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL USED THE FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS TOOL TO INCREASE SEAS THERE,
BUT TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE INNER CHANNEL SPEEDS ARE 10 TO 20 KT AND WILL ALSO
DECREASE THROUGH THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): WINDS OUT
OVER THE GULF WATERS ARE MAINLY 10 TO 20 KT, WITH SOME 25 KT
OUTFLOW STREAMING FROM DANGEROUS RIVER NEAR YAKUTAT AND CROSS
SOUND THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE LOWERING DOWN UNDER 8 FEET AND
LOOK TO DECREASE TO ABOUT 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR AKZ330.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-643-644-651-
664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
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