766
FXAK67 PAJK 130650
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1050 PM AKDT THU MAR 12 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THAT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADD FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT / THE BROAD MULTIPLE LOW
COMPLEX IN THE GULF CONTINUES WITH A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE FEATURE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SMALL MESO LOWS CAN AND HAVE SPUN OFF WEAK
SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW AROUND YAKUTAT AND SITKA TO DIXON ENTRANCE.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS OR WHERE SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUALLY MOVE OVER THE SAME TERRAIN. SO HAVE ISSUED
ADVISORIES FOR THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THE SHOWERS.
GUSTY WINDS DOWN LYNN CANAL TONIGHT IMPACTING HAINES AND SKAGWAY
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH, AND TO ABOUT 45 MPH FOR PT COUVERDEN TO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
A RETURN TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOMS ON THE
HORIZON, AS A STRONG SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY. DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
DEEPENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS LOCKED INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR A ~980
DECAMETER LOW TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST;
THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION IS STILL NOT YET SET IN STONE.
THE BIG STORIES FOR THE PANHANDLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SNOW
AND WIND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE
AK, AND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 KT OR HIGHER MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR FOR THESE
AREAS, ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE OUTER GULF COAST. SNOW WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD, WITH ANYWHERE FROM 3-12 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR
SEA LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY, AS THE
FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE SNOW
TOTALS. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTH, BUT EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK.
BEYOND THIS, WE ENTER BACK INTO A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL LOOKS SET TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
AS A LOW SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AT TIMES, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
MARITIME AND AVIATION CONCERNS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
CONCURRENTLY LOOKS SET TO RECEIVE STRONGER SURGES OF MOISTURE, AS
SYSTEMS RACING ALONG THE FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ARE ABLE
TO SIDE-SWIPE THE AREA.
AVIATION.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE PANHANDLE IS SPLIT
HALFWAY IN TERMS OF CONDITIONS. THE NORTHERN HALF, ABOVE BUT NOT
INCLUDING SITKA AND ANGOON, IS STILL LARGELY VFR WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD VIS. SKAGWAY AND HAINES HAVE HAD GUSTY NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO START TO WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BE ON A
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF,
BELOW AND INCLUDING SITKA AND ANGOON, A MESO LOW IN THE EASTERN
GULF AROUND 30 TO 50 NM OFF THE COAST OF BARANOF ISLAND HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS VISIBLE ON
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THESE SHOWERS ARE BRINGING
CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR BY REDUCING VIS TO 1 SM OR LESS
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000 FT. WHILE THE MAIN BAND HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PUSHING INTO SITKA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHICH HAS
BROUGHT CONDITIONS UP AND DOWN, THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
HAS JUST STARTED TO FOLLOW SUIT. A HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHED
THROUGH POW ISLAND AND MADE IT TO BOTH PETERSBURG AND KETCHIKAN,
BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY TO 2 SM WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS MORE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY SHOWERS.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS (INNER CHANNELS): GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DOWN
LYNN CANAL TONIGHT AND EARLY PART OF FRIDAY TAPERING OFF TO 20 KT
OR LESS BY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 30 KT, ALTHOUGH ROCKY
ISLAND IS HOVERING NEAR GALE FORCE. GUSTS TO 45 KT AT ROCKY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DUE TO THE CONTINUED WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL USED THE FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS TOOL TO INCREASE SEAS THERE,
BUT TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE INNER CHANNEL SPEEDS ARE 10 TO 20 KT AND WILL ALSO
DECREASE THROUGH THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
OUTSIDE WATERS (EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): WINDS OUT
OVER THE GULF WATERS ARE MAINLY 10 TO 20 KT, WITH SOME 25 KT
OUTFLOW STREAMING FROM DANGEROUS RIVER NEAR YAKUTAT AND CROSS
SOUND THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE LOWERING DOWN UNDER 8 FEET AND
LOOK TO DECREASE TO ABOUT 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ330.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-644-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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