967
FXAK67 PAJK 131418
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
618 AM AKDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
DUE TO ANTICIPATED APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
A SLOWLY-MOVING WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD, COMING ASHORE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND / CAPE DECISION AREA THIS MORNING.
THAT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
CONTINUING TO BRING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND & KETCHIKAN GATEWAY BOROUGH
IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS & SOUTHERN OUTER COAST FOR EXPECTED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES.
THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WIND PATTERN BETWEEN AN AREA OF
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON & LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF IS KEEPING THINGS ON THE BREEZIER SIDE &
KEEPING THINGS CLEARER, DRIER, & COLDER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS.
THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP & TILTS TO BE
MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.
LONG TERM
A RETURN TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOMS ON THE
HORIZON, AS A STRONG SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY. DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
DEEPENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS LOCKED INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR A ~980
DECAMETER LOW TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST;
THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION IS STILL NOT YET SET IN STONE.
THE BIG STORIES FOR THE PANHANDLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SNOW
AND WIND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE
AK, AND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 KT OR HIGHER MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR FOR THESE
AREAS, ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE OUTER GULF COAST. SNOW WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD, WITH ANYWHERE FROM 3-12 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR
SEA LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY, AS THE
FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE SNOW
TOTALS. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTH, BUT EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK.
BEYOND THIS, WE ENTER BACK INTO A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL LOOKS SET TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
AS A LOW SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AT TIMES, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
MARITIME AND AVIATION CONCERNS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
CONCURRENTLY LOOKS SET TO RECEIVE STRONGER SURGES OF MOISTURE, AS
SYSTEMS RACING ALONG THE FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ARE ABLE
TO SIDE-SWIPE THE AREA.
AVIATION
PANHANDLE REMAINS SPLIT BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS
AND CLEARER SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AND LINGERING
SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT DROPS TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE MESO LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE COAST OF BARANOF
ISLAND JUST SOUTH OF SITKA, KEEPING THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND WITH IT THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SUBSEQUENT
DROPS TO CIGS AND VIS WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SITKA AND THE MORE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE TO BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY AS
THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH, WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL KEEP
SEEING SOME INTERMITTENT DROPS FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR/IFR AS SHOWERS
LAST INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO BRING CIGS TO 1500-
2000 FT AND VIS TO 2-4SM AS THEY PUSH THROUGH. KLAWOCK AND KETCHIKAN
WILL SEE SOME HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF DROPS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
WITH CIGS 500-800 FT AND PERIODS OF VIS OF 1SM OR LESS DURING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE BANDS THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND 4
TO 6Z, CLEARING EARLIER AROUND POW AND LASTING LONGER AROUND
KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA.
SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME OUTFLOW DURING THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HAINES EXPECTING WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT NOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND SKAGWAY
EXPECTING TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 KT. THE OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH MIDDAY INTO THE
EVENING, BRINGING DOWN THE SURFACE WINDS BY TONIGHT. CONTINUING TO
SEE NO LLWS CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. OVERALL IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE OUTFLOW AND THE SHOWERS / VIS AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): ENHANCED NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW SUSTAINED WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM BETWEEN 25 & 30 KT,
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 TO 45 KT MAINLY AROUND POINT COUVERDEN,
DOWN TO SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 & 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS, SPECIFICALLY LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS
PASSAGE, & EXTREME NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, NEAR POINT COUVERDEN.
FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FT WILL REMAIN TODAY
BEFORE THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FULLY TAPERS DOWN. 10 TO 20 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP, PEAKING OUT AT
AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES & PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WAVES WILL
GENERALLY PICK-UP TO AROUND 4 TO 10 FT WITH THAT WEATHER SYSTEM.
WAVES WILL NE HIGHER NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): THE GENERALLY
BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE KEEPING WINDS
MAINLY BETWEEN 10 & 25 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3 TO 6 FT FOR THAT
TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL GAP WINDS OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS OF UP TO AROUND 25 KNOT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY VALUES FROM THE DIMINISHING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
TODAY. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE UP TO BETWEEN 25
KT SMALL CRAFT & 40 KT GALE FORCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MORE
SIGNIFICANT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO THE RIGHT OF
THE LOW TRACK. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK NORTHWARD,
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO BETWEEN 8 & 14 FT WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ330.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-643.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...JLC
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