915
FXAK67 PAJK 132356
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKDT FRI MAR 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES:
- WEAKENING LOW OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND WILL
KEEP PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWER (SOME LOCALLY HEAVY) ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.
- MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY, STRENGTHENING
OFF THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LONGER PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUTLOOK FROM NWS JUNEAU
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- IF YOU WANT A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOVELING AFTER MONDAY, WE HAVE
BAD NEWS: PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW STAYS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA KEEPS A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BANDS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WE CONTINUE TO NOTE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES SHOW SNOWFALL RATES AROUND ONE QUARTER
INCH PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, AND THIS HAS BEEN
MATCHING UP WELL WITH OUR SURFACE OBSERVATION NETWORKS INCLUDING
SPOTTERS ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE THE BANDS OF SHOWERS GET MORE
ORGANIZED, WE COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES FALL FOR SEVERAL AREAS, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS (SUCH AS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ROADS OF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND) OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO 10 PM THIS EVENING AS THAT IS WHERE THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS PINGING LONGER DURATIONS
OF THE SNOW INTO LATE EVENING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
BROADENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD.
OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PULLS
EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS INTO A BROAD TROUGH.
TO THE NORTH, WE HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO NEAR YAKUTAT. OVER THE PAST HOUR,
WE HAVE SEEN AN INTENSIFICATION OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND YAKUTAT,
AND THE LAST HOUR THEY HAVE BEEN REPORTING 1/4SM +SN. WE EXPECT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES TOTAL AROUND THE YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT AREA FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.
THE OTHER STORY TODAY IS THE WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
LYNN CANAL AND UP THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. WE HAVE A WIND ADVISORY
GOING UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR THE SKAGWAY AND SOUTH KLONDIKE AREA. WE
DO EXPECT WINDS TO START TRAILING OFF BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WE EXPECT A QUIETER SATURDAY...BUT GET READY. WE START LOADING UP
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND WIND AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NO OTHER WAY TO SAY IT, MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, A 990MB LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND STRENGTHEN, EJECTING A STRONG FRONT AND
SENDING A SURGE OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM TENAKEE SPRINGS TO KAKE TO PETERSBURG, ANTICIPATING
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN GENERALLY ALL SNOW WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DURATION OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE TOWARDS KETCHIKAN, CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING IS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY,
BEFORE A TRANSITION PERIOD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, LIMITING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
INCOMING SNOWFALL, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS AS THIS FRONT
PUSHES INTO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, WITH LIKELY GUSTS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH, POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 MPH ALONG THE SE COAST.
AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM DISSIPATES MONDAY EVENING, AN ACTIVE SNOW
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDS PERSISTENT BUT INTERMITTENT
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT FORECASTERS CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN SUMMARY AND TO KEEP IT
SHORTER, SNOW IS RETURNING, AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT WHICH WILL SEE
PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS BRINING VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS DOWN TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH 03Z. AS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA PANHANDLE (GENERALLY SOUTH OF A SITKA TO WRANGELL LINE, WE
WILL SEE MVFR PREVAILING WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE TO MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND WILL BROADEN/WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT, MEANING FLIGHT CATEGORIES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE GET INTO EARLY MORNING.
THE ONLY OTHER FLIGHT IMPACT OF NOTE WILL BE FOR SKAGWAY WHERE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS DOWN THE CHILKOOT VALLEY WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
WINDS 25G35KT GOING INTO THE EVENING (UNTIL 06Z) BEFORE DROPPING
OFF.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): ENHANCED NORTHERLY OUTFLOW SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM BETWEEN 25 & 30 KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
40 TO 45 KT MAINLY AROUND POINT COUVERDEN, DOWN TO SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10 & 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS,
SPECIFICALLY LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, & EXTREME NORTHERN
CHATHAM STRAIT, NEAR POINT COUVERDEN. FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS UP TO
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
FULLY TAPERS DOWN, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP, PEAKING OUT AT AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES & PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WAVES WILL GENERALLY PICK-UP
TO AROUND 4 TO 10 FT WITH THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. WAVES WILL NE HIGHER
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): THE GENERALLY
BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE KEEPING WINDS
MAINLY BETWEEN 10 & 25 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3 TO 6 FT FOR THAT
TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL GAP WINDS OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS OF UP TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE UP TO
BETWEEN 35 KT GALE FORCE & 50 KT STORM FORCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
MORE SIGNIFICANT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO THE RIGHT
OF THE LOW TRACK. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK NORTHWARD,
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO BETWEEN 8 & 14 FT WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328-
332.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ329>331.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031.
SHORT TERM...GARMON/BEZENEK
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...GARMON
MARINE...BEZENEK
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