887
FXAK67 PAJK 140549
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
949 PM AKDT FRI MAR 13 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEAKENING LOW OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND WILL
KEEP PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWER (SOME LOCALLY HEAVY) ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.
- MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY, STRENGTHENING
OFF THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LONGER PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUTLOOK FROM NWS JUNEAU
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- IF YOU WANT A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOVELING AFTER MONDAY, WE HAVE
BAD NEWS: PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW STAYS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA KEEPS A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BANDS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WE CONTINUE TO NOTE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES SHOW SNOWFALL RATES AROUND ONE QUARTER
INCH PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, AND THIS HAS BEEN
MATCHING UP WELL WITH OUR SURFACE OBSERVATION NETWORKS INCLUDING
SPOTTERS ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE THE BANDS OF SHOWERS GET MORE
ORGANIZED, WE COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES FALL FOR SEVERAL AREAS, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS (SUCH AS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ROADS OF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND) OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO 10 PM THIS EVENING AS THAT IS WHERE THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS PINGING LONGER DURATIONS
OF THE SNOW INTO LATE EVENING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
BROADENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD.
OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PULLS
EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS INTO A BROAD TROUGH.
TO THE NORTH, WE HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO NEAR YAKUTAT. OVER THE PAST HOUR,
WE HAVE SEEN AN INTENSIFICATION OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND YAKUTAT,
AND THE LAST HOUR THEY HAVE BEEN REPORTING 1/4SM +SN. WE EXPECT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES TOTAL AROUND THE YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT AREA FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.
THE OTHER STORY TODAY IS THE WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
LYNN CANAL AND UP THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. WE HAVE A WIND ADVISORY
GOING UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR THE SKAGWAY AND SOUTH KLONDIKE AREA. WE
DO EXPECT WINDS TO START TRAILING OFF BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WE EXPECT A QUIETER SATURDAY...BUT GET READY. WE START LOADING UP
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND WIND AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NO OTHER WAY TO SAY IT, MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, A 990MB LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND STRENGTHEN, EJECTING A STRONG FRONT AND
SENDING A SURGE OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM TENAKEE SPRINGS TO KAKE TO PETERSBURG, ANTICIPATING
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN GENERALLY ALL SNOW WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DURATION OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE TOWARDS KETCHIKAN, CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING IS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE A
TRANSITION PERIOD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
LIMITING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCOMING
SNOWFALL, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
INTO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, WITH LIKELY GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
MPH, POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 MPH ALONG THE SE COAST.
AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM DISSIPATES MONDAY EVENING, AN ACTIVE SNOW
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDS PERSISTENT BUT INTERMITTENT
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT FORECASTERS CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN SUMMARY AND TO KEEP IT
SHORTER, SNOW IS RETURNING, AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A MAJORITY OF SITES
SEEING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS IN HAINES ARE NO
LONGER GUSTING, THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED AROUND 7 TO
10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKAGWAY IS STILL
HOLDING ONTO AROUND 20 KT GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF
IS LOOKING TO SEND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING AND RATES OF SNOWFALL ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. AT
THIS MOMENT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO AT LEAST
MVFR ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER COAST, INTO THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR, AND UP NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH CIGS AOB 2500 FT. WHILE
VIS IS EXPECTED TO DROP, THIS SHOULD ONLY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW.
AS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE (GENERALLY SOUTH OF AND INCLUDING
FROM SITKA TO PETERSBURG), SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
AND BRING LOW CIGS AOB 2500 FT WITH RESTRICTED VIS. THE SURFACE TO
MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF BARANOF
ISLAND HAS SLOWLY MOVED ONSHORE AND SOUTHEASTWARD, CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED FOR MANY
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY TOMORROW NIGHT, A FRONT PUSHING
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS A CHANCE TO SEND SOME HIGH
OVERCAST CIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): ENHANCED NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM BETWEEN 25 & 30 KT, WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 40 TO 45 KT MAINLY AROUND POINT COUVERDEN, DOWN TO
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 & 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
INNER CHANNELS, SPECIFICALLY LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, &
EXTREME NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, NEAR POINT COUVERDEN. FULLY
DEVELOPED SEAS UP TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FULLY TAPERS DOWN, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP, PEAKING OUT
AT AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES & PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WAVES WILL
GENERALLY PICK-UP TO AROUND 4 TO 10 FT WITH THAT WEATHER SYSTEM.
WAVES WILL NE HIGHER NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): THE
GENERALLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
KEEPING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 & 25 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3 TO 6 FT
FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL GAP
WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS OF UP TO AROUND 20
KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
INCREASE UP TO BETWEEN 35 KT GALE FORCE & 50 KT STORM FORCE FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED MORE SIGNIFICANT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF WATERS TO THE RIGHT OF THE LOW TRACK. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT THE
LOW TO TRACK NORTHWARD, APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST OF
THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP
TO BETWEEN 8 & 14 FT WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ329>331.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARMON/BEZENEK
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...BEZENEK
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