813
FXAK67 PAJK 141453
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
653 AM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF COAST SATURDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR YAKUTAT, ELFIN COVE, AND
PELICAN.
- MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY, STRENGTHENING
OFF THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LONGER PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUTLOOK FROM NWS JUNEAU
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- IF YOU WANT A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOVELING AFTER MONDAY, WE HAVE
BAD NEWS: PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW STAYS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA KEEPS A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BANDS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE YUKON STEADILY WEAKENS. STRONGEST WINDS THIS
MORNING REMAIN NEAR POINT COUVERDEN WITH ROCKY ISLAND HOLDING ON
TO 18KT SUSTAINED WINDS. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FELL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT WITH AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
REPORTED IN PETERSBURG. INSTEAD OF CLEARING OUT AND GETTING FOG,
THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE STRATIFIED INTO
A LOW DECK AND EXPANDED. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD STILL FALL OUT OF
THESE CLOUDS THIS MORNING, BUT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL BE MOVING
OUT AND THUS THESE SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT OUT THIS MORNING WITH
SUNNY BREAKS IN IT'S WAKE OVER THE SOUTH. FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS,
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THROUGH
THE DAY ALONG WITH A SEPARATE BAND OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. COLD
AIR ADVENTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
THESE WILL DEVELOP INTO AN ORGANIZED BAND ACROSS THE NE GULF
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE TROUGH. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL RATES OF
AROUND 1 INCH PER 3 HOURS IS EXPECTED FROM YAKUTAT TO PELICAN,
WITH LIGHTER RATES INLAND. IF SNOW SHOWERS TRAIN OVER ONE LOCATION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO A HALF
MILE AT TIMES WITH GREATER ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD AND BRING STEADY SNOW BACK INTO THE AREA WITH
HEAVIER RATES, SEE LONG TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THAT.
GAVE PREFERENCE TO THE 00Z CANADIAN FOR THE PRESSURE LINING UP
WITH OBSERVED VALUES. THIS HELPED TO KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS GOING
LONGER THIS MORNING FOR SOME MARINE AREAS. SOME PLACES MAY SEE
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE TRIES TO SHIFT
DIRECTIONS TO A SEA BREEZE AND DUE TO THE TROUGH MOVING IN. BUT
WITH THAT NEXT LOW TRACKING IN FROM THE SOUTH, WINDS SHOULD START
BACKING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
SOME POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. BUMPED UP WIND
SPEEDS IN THE TAKU WIND AREA AND AT EAGLECREST TO AROUND 15-20MPH
AS A STARTING POINT, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER
VALUES AS THAT LOW APPROACHES.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ NO OTHER WAY TO SAY IT,
MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, A 990MB LOW WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND STRENGTHEN,
EJECTING A STRONG FRONT AND SENDING A SURGE OF MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TENAKEE SPRINGS TO
KAKE TO PETERSBURG, ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN GENERALLY
ALL SNOW WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 6 TO 12
INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DURATION OF
1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE TOWARDS KETCHIKAN, CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING IS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE A
TRANSITION PERIOD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
LIMITING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCOMING
SNOWFALL, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
INTO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, WITH LIKELY GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
MPH, POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 MPH ALONG THE SE COAST.
AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM DISSIPATES MONDAY EVENING, AN ACTIVE SNOW
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDS PERSISTENT BUT INTERMITTENT
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT FORECASTERS CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN SUMMARY AND TO KEEP IT
SHORTER, SNOW IS RETURNING, AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY/
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE, FROM PASI & NORTHWARD, WE START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS &
BENIGN LLWS VALUES & RELATIVELY BENIGN SFC WINDS. THEN, DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, A TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE, BRINGING
REDUCED VISS FROM SNOW SHOWERS & REDUCED CIGS TO GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THAT REGION & PERHAPS LOWER UNDER SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE BELOW PASI, SOME LINGERING
LOWER CIGS & ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM A WEAKENING LOW
DEPARTING THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE & ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA
ARE PERIODICALLY REDUCING VISS TO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY IMPROVE UP TO THE VFR CATEGORY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH AWAY. THEN, STARTING LATE TONIGHT, A MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM STARTS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, STARTING THE PROGRESSIVE LOWERING OF CIGS & VISS
DOWN INTO THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS
24-HOUR TAF-PERIOD. SFC WINDS & LLWS VALUES REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BUT WILL BEGIN TO PRECIPITOUSLY INCREASE ALONG WITH
CIGS & VISS FURTHER DECREASING STARTING JUST AFTER THIS TAF-PERIOD
ENDS.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL
SUBSIDE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON STEADILY WEAKENS.
STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING REMAIN NEAR POINT COUVERDEN WITH
ROCKY ISLAND HOLDING ON TO 18KT SUSTAINED WINDS. MEANWHILE, A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SOME PLACES
MAY SEE VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE TRIES TO SHIFT
DIRECTIONS TO A SEA BREEZE AND DUE TO THE TROUGH MOVING IN.
AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TRACKING IN FROM THE
SOUTH, WINDS SHOULD START BACKING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THEN TURN OUT
OF THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
OCEAN ENTRANCES. WAVES WILL GENERALLY PICK- UP TO AROUND 4 TO 10
FT WITH THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. WAVES WILL NE HIGHER NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): THE
GENERALLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
KEEPING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 & 25 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3 TO 6 FT
FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL GAP
WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS OF UP TO AROUND 20.
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE UP TO BETWEEN 35 KT
GALE FORCE & 50 KT STORM FORCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MORE
SIGNIFICANT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO THE RIGHT OF
THE LOW TRACK. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK NORTHWARD,
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO BETWEEN 8 & 14 FT WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR AKZ317.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR AKZ322.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-651-652-661.
SHORT TERM...FERRIN
LONG TERM...NM
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...FERRIN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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