974
FXAK67 PAJK 150012
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
412 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY, STRENGTHENING OFF THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND HYDER.
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
SHORT DURATION ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE
STRONG FRONT PUSHES INLAND, WITH WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH
EXPECTED.
- PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW STAYS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA KEEPING A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BANDS OF HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THIS
IS A SEPARATE AND WEAKER SYSTEM AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW THAT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ANTICIPATING GENERALLY
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL, WITH A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH, PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM TENAKEE SPRINGS TO ANGOON OVER TO STEPHENS
PASSAGE. CURRENT FORECAST IS AROUND 6 TO 14 INCHES, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING JUNEAU.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES FOR JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, TENAKEE
SPRINGS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SIMPLY PUT, PLAN FOR 4 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, ONE COMPLICATION IS THE CHANGEOVER TIMING FROM SNOW TO
RAIN SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON; ON ONE HAND WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION, ON THE OTHER, HEAVY PRECIPITATION
RATES WHICH WILL DRIVE SNOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CURRENT FORECAST
HOLDS ON TO THE HEAVY PRECIP RATES, KEEPING SNOW AROUND FOR
LONGER, BUT WE WILL SEE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS AROUND PRINCE OF WALES AND
KETCHIKAN/METLAKATLA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAIN ON SNOW EVENT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, ANOTHER INCOMING HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A SHORT DURATION OF STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INLAND. THERE WAS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST PUSHING JUST WEST OF BARANOF ISLAND ALLOWING STRONGEST
WINDS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NOT
ANTICIPATING THESE LEVEL OF WINDS TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWEST, LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, EVENTUALLY SETTLING
IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
LONG TERM
AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM DISSIPATES MONDAY EVENING, AN ACTIVE SNOW
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDS PERSISTENT BUT INTERMITTENT
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT FORECASTERS CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN SUMMARY AND TO KEEP IT
SHORTER, SNOW IS RETURNING, AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
LESS THAN STELLAR FLYING WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO
EVER DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES UP INTO THE PANHANDLE.
CURRENTLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AS OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, INTERSPERSED WITH DROPS TOWARDS IFR WHEN SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH; WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS GENERALLY FOR AREAS FROM
SITKA ON NORTHWARD. THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL
PLUMMET TO IFR IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, ENTER LIFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, REACHING THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IN FULL FORCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, THEN PUSHING FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. YAKUTAT WILL BE THE ONE
EXCEPTION, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN ON MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS, AND FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): ALONG OUR COAST, NOT MUCH TO
TALK ABOUT WITH RESPECT TO WIND, AS OF 1500 SATURDAY THE AMSR2
PASS AND BUOYS ALL SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. BUOYS
ARE REPORTING OUR FIRST DOMINANT SOUTHERLY SWELL OF THE SEASON,
ORIGINATING FROM SIGNIFICANT LOWS EAST OF NEW ZEALAND SEVERAL DAYS
AGO; SSE 2 TO 3 FT AT 17 TO 19 SECONDS AND SW TO NW WIND CHOP ON
TOP, 1 TO 2 FT AT 3 TO 5 SECONDS. HOWEVER, ALL COMBINED
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE BELOW 6 FT, A WELCOME RESPITE TO THE
VERY ACTIVE SEASON. TONIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ALONG THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STORM FORCE LOW THAT
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEAR HAIDA GWAII, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CROSS SOUND. FROM LITUYA BAY TO CAPE
ST. ELIAS, EXPECT STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE CONDITIONS;
STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SUNDAY NIGHT, OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF UPPER BAY IN YAKUTAT BAY, WITH GALE FORCE
FORECASTED.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS OF GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE INSIDE AS OF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A STORM FORCE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BUILD SOUTH
OF ICY STRAIT IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
FORECASTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF CLARENCE STRAIT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS LIKELY
SOUTH OF HYDABURG IN CORDOVA BAY. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ALSO LIKELY IN LYNN CANAL AND AS WINDS ARE PULLED OUT OF THE
INSIDE, WITH GALES LIKELY OUT OF CROSS SOUND. MARINERS SHOULD
PREPARE THEIR VESSELS FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW. FOR FOLKS IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CHECK BILGE PUMPS AS HEAVY SNOW BECOMES HEAVY
RAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ317.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ318-319.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ320>322-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ323.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ324.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ326.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ327-329.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ327-
330.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ328.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ330-
332.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ331.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ641.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-642-644-652-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>035-053-643-651-672.
SHORT TERM...AP/NM
LONG TERM...NM
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...AP
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